ARK Invest Revises Bitcoin Forecast
Cathie Wood, the founder of ARK Invest, has revised her Bitcoin price target downwards by $300,000. This adjustment comes as Wood observes stablecoins capturing market share that ARK Invest had initially anticipated Bitcoin would dominate, particularly in emerging economies. Wood shared these insights with CNBC on Thursday, highlighting that stablecoins are experiencing significantly faster scaling than previously projected.
ARK Invest had previously forecasted Bitcoin's price to reach $1.5 million by 2030. This estimate was later raised to $2.4 million in April, with a base scenario of $1.2 million and a bear case scenario of $500,000. Wood now believes that the substantial adoption of stablecoins in emerging markets necessitates a reduction of approximately $300,000 from the bullish projection.
Stablecoin Market Dynamics
The total market capitalization of stablecoins surpassed $300 billion in 2025. Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC together represent a combined supply of nearly $260 billion. This significant market presence is reshaping the functions that Wood had envisioned Bitcoin would serve. Despite this revision, Wood maintains a fundamentally bullish outlook on Bitcoin, referring to it as "digital gold." She contrasts this with dollar-pegged stablecoins, which she characterizes as representing tokenized cash.
Standard Chartered has projected that U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins could potentially extract over $1 trillion from emerging market banking systems by the year 2028. This trend is particularly evident in countries grappling with hyperinflation, sanctions, or stringent currency controls, where individuals and businesses are increasingly turning to cryptocurrency alternatives for wealth preservation.
Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Trajectory
Venezuela, for instance, experienced an inflation rate of 269% in 2025, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. This economic instability has driven millions of Venezuelans towards dollar-pegged stablecoins. The country's strict currency controls and dual exchange systems make stablecoins a more reliable option than holding physical dollars or utilizing traditional bank accounts.
In related market news, Galaxy Digital reduced its year-end Bitcoin target to $120,000 on Wednesday. This decision was attributed to factors such as selling pressure from large holders ("whales") and a rotation of capital into artificial intelligence and gold investments. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts project that Bitcoin could reach $170,000 within the next six to 12 months, driven by the resetting of futures leverage. Bitcoin is currently trading near $102,300, which is down nearly 19% from its all-time high of over $126,000 recorded in October.