Cardano (ADA) is exhibiting a bullish divergence pattern on its daily chart, reminiscent of the technical setup that preceded a 32% rally between November and December 2025. This technical signal is occurring concurrently with significant activity from whale wallets and a substantial drop in selling by long-term holders.
Whale wallets, specifically those holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA, have increased their combined holdings by approximately 100 million ADA, valued at over $36 million, since January 12. In less than two weeks, these wallets saw their combined holdings grow from roughly 5.51 billion to 5.61 billion tokens.
Furthermore, long-term holders, defined as those who have held ADA for 180 to 365 days, have significantly reduced their selling activity. Spent coin activity for this group has collapsed from approximately 67.47 million ADA on January 14 to around 174,000 ADA recently, pushing this activity to a monthly low.
Technical Indicators Point to Weakening Selling Pressure
The current bullish divergence pattern shows ADA making lower price lows while its Relative Strength Index (RSI) trends higher. This technical indicator suggests that selling pressure may be weakening.
This same divergence was observed between November 4 and December 31, 2025, and was followed by a notable increase in ADA's price.
In contrast to long-term holders, short-term holders present a different picture. Coins held for 30 to 60 days have shown a 312% surge in movement, increasing from approximately 3.6 million ADA on January 18 to roughly 14.84 million ADA.
Key Price Levels to Watch for Outcome Confirmation
The previous 32% rally attempt was ultimately unsuccessful because ADA failed to reclaim its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is currently positioned near $0.41. A daily close above this level would serve as a signal that short-term momentum is aligning with the bullish technical setup.
Above the $0.41 level, resistance is anticipated at $0.43, followed by further resistance at $0.48, which is near the 200-day EMA.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which monitors capital entering or leaving an asset, is trending higher despite falling prices, suggesting that accumulation is occurring. During the prior rally attempt, the CMF failed to remain above zero, indicating weak inflows.
Conversely, a sustained break below the $0.35 support level would weaken the bullish divergence and potentially open a path toward the $0.32 price level.