Key Insights and Potential Price Levels
Cryptocurrency analyst Dan Gambardello has outlined three potential downside scenarios for Cardano's price, with the most severe possibility suggesting a fall to $0.25-$0.35 if current support structures fail. This technical breakdown follows a significant decline in ADA's price, which has plunged over 15% in the last seven days and 37% over the past 30 days.
- •Cardano price could fall to $0.25-$0.35 if short-term support fails, an analyst warns.
- •Dan Gambardello identifies three price scenarios ranging from $0.35 to sub-$0.25.
- •The first support zone at $0.35-$0.45 carries a 60% probability of being tested.
Three Potential Scenarios for Cardano Price
Dan Gambardello presented three distinct downside scenarios for Cardano price based on different market conditions.
The first scenario targets a price range of $0.35-$0.45, which the analyst assigned a 60% probability. This level would represent a continuation of the current drop from the $0.52 levels. Gambardello commented, "it just sounds good, it seems like it’s very much in play where this could happen."
The second scenario projects Cardano (ADA) price falling to $0.25-$0.35 if the cryptocurrency experiences a structural bottom failure, drawing parallels to patterns observed in Ethereum. This deeper drawdown would test support zones established during the summer of 2024. The analyst clarified that this scenario would require the failure of support that has held for months.
The third and most severe scenario envisions Cardano price dropping below $0.25, indicating a full cycle reset. Gambardello assigned only a 10% probability to this outcome, noting it would only occur if macro liquidity completely fails.
Gambardello emphasized that these projections do not necessarily preclude an "epic turn in liquidity cycle and an epic bull run for cryptos." The analyst framed these scenarios as contingency planning rather than definitive predictions, stating that his analysis applies "if we fail kind of putting in some type of bottom some type of structured move." The price action of Cardano (ADA) in the coming weeks will be crucial in determining which scenario materializes.
Analyst Identifies $0.35-$0.45 Support Zone
The $0.35-$0.45 range is considered the highest probability outcome according to Gambardello’s analysis. Cardano (ADA) price has already tested the upper end of this zone, briefly dipping into the $0.40s before recovering to $0.52. The analyst acknowledged the difficulty for ADA holders witnessing the decline, stating, "it’s tough right? I get it for ADA holders for all coin holders." A test of the $0.35-$0.45 level would represent approximately 30-35% downside from the current $0.52 levels. Gambardello's comparison of ADA to Ethereum suggests similar patterns may emerge across major altcoins during periods of reduced market liquidity and risk-off sentiment.
Sub-$0.25 Scenario Remains Possible Under Specific Conditions
The most extreme scenario, projecting Cardano price below $0.25, carries only a 10% probability but would signify a complete cycle reset. Gambardello specified that this outcome is contingent on a macro liquidity failure extending beyond cryptocurrency-specific factors. A drop below $0.25 would breach all support zones established since the summer of 2024, marking a new multi-year low.
The analyst's low probability assignment reflects his view that broader market conditions are likely to favor eventual liquidity expansion. Gambardello pointed to significant capital waiting to enter the crypto space, anticipated deregulation, and the Clarity Act as positive catalysts. He noted that the total altcoin market cap, excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins, is currently at just $1 trillion, which he considers "incredibly small" relative to potential capital inflows. A decline in Cardano price to sub-$0.25 would contribute to the altcoin market cap decreasing by approximately 50%, from $1 trillion to $500 billion.
Gambardello questioned the logic of such a steep decline given the progress in regulation and increasing institutional interest. He suggested that this scenario would lead to "so much capital and more redistribution" as buyers accumulate assets at extreme discounts. The analyst also shared his personal positioning, stating:
“I’d rather be wrong and round trip into that bear market if that was going to happen and accumulate more in those areas than to not have proper exposure for a continued bull market.”