Pinned Supply and Massive ADA Staking

Cardano tokenomics tell a pretty clear story. There’s a maximum supply of 45 billion ADA, but only around 35.8 billion are in circulation right now. Out of that, roughly 21.2 billion ADA, that’s about 60%, are staked.

So in reality, less than half of all ADA is actually available for trading. And while staking isn’t permanently locked, it shows how confident long‑term holders are. When demand returns, the reduced liquidity could make price movements a lot more explosive.

The “Real” Tradable Supply Might Be Way Smaller

Cheeky Crypto goes even deeper. Once you remove both staked coins and those held by long‑term holders (another 20–30%), the actual number of ADA available for active trading could drop to just 10‑12 billion.

That’s a shockingly small pool when you think about the next bull run. If demand picks up like it did in 2021, there simply won’t be enough ADA to go around. That kind of scarcity could send prices soaring, way beyond what most people expect.

ADA Price Scenarios for 2026

Cheeky Crypto laid out several realistic paths for ADA’s future, depending on how the market performs:

Scenario	Market Cap	Approx. ADA Price	Conditions
Conservative	$25B	~$2.40	bull market
Base Case	$60B	~$5.13	Normal cycle peak
Optimistic	$95B	~$8–12	Strong bull run
Blue Sky	$120B	~$10.26	Sustained adoption
AI Max Case	$150B	~$12.82	Perfect conditions

The host’s personal take? Around $7 ADA sometime between 2026 and 2027, if everything lines up with a mid‑cycle peak.

What’s Next for ADA

Cardano story has always been about long‑term fundamentals, not hype. With so much of the supply staked, real scarcity in circulation, and a growing list of enterprise‑focused projects, it might finally be ready for its breakout moment.

Whether it stops at $5 or pushes past $10, the setup for ADA price heading into 2026 looks stronger than most people realize. The real question is, will investors recognize it before it happens?