Cardano is quietly setting up one of its most interesting long-term chart structures in years, according to a new analysis shared by Altcoin Piooners on X. The analyst posted a zoomed-out 3-week ADA/USD chart that shows a massive multi-year price pattern tightening toward a potential breakout point, and the timing lines up almost perfectly with early 2026.
ADA has struggled in recent weeks, slipping to around $0.41 after the latest market correction. But Altcoin Piooners argues that even this drop fits cleanly within a long-term ascending structure that has been building since 2019.
A 6-Year Trendline That Has Never Broken
The core of the analyst’s chart is a rising trendline stretching all the way back to 2019, connecting every major macro bottom:
- •2019
- •2020 COVID crash
- •2023 lows
- •2025 retest
Each time ADA has touched this trendline, it responded with massive moves; typically 5x to 10x rallies. Altcoin Piooners highlights that ADA has once again tagged the same trendline during this recent market dip, bouncing from the low-$0.40s region.
He points out that the structure remains entirely intact, and unless ADA closes a higher-timeframe candle under the $0.35 area, the broader bullish setup is still alive.
A Multi-Year Ascending Triangle Tightening for a Breakout
On top of the long-term trendline, the analyst maps out a multi-year ascending triangle, with rising lows compressing price toward a downtrend resistance that has been in place since the 2021 peak.
This combination, a rising base plus a contracting price structure, typically signals a major expansion move as volatility builds. The chart clearly shows the ADA price squeezing into the apex of the formation, with Q1 2026 lining up as the window where a decisive breakout becomes likely.
Altcoin Piooners also notes several bullish indicators supporting the pattern:
- •RSI reset deeply into oversold territory, similar to ADA’s 2020 cycle bottom.
- •MACD histogram curling upward, hinting at a momentum reversal.
- •Stochastic divergence forming, which often appears near macro turning points.
Volume has been contracting as well, another classic sign that a volatility squeeze is nearing completion.
Price Targets if ADA Breaks Out
The analyst lays out a set of clear upside targets if the ascending triangle finally resolves in ADA’s favor:
- •$0.85–$1.05 – first major breakout target
- •$1.80–$2.20 – mid-cycle target for 2026–2027
- •$3.50–$4.00+ – full mania-phase target if Cardano repeats prior cycle strength
These levels align with previous structural resistances, Fibonacci extensions, and the measured move from the triangle itself.
Altcoin Piooners stresses that this move won’t happen overnight, but the chart structure strongly favors a breakout sometime between late Q4 2025 and early Q1 2026, assuming ADA can maintain its long-term trendline support.
What Could Invalidate the Setup?
The bear case revolves around one level: $0.35.
A higher-timeframe close below that trendline would break a six-year pattern and invalidate the ascending triangle. Until that happens, though, the analyst says ADA’s long-term bullish structure remains intact, despite short-term volatility and macro market pressure.
Altcoin Piooners’ chart makes one thing clear: Cardano is approaching a major decision point. The multi-year ascending triangle, the untouched rising trendline since 2019, and momentum indicators all point toward a potentially explosive move in early 2026.