The Buzz Around New Stimulus Checks
In recent weeks, discussions surrounding new US stimulus checks have intensified, appearing across social media, political platforms, and within the financial sector. However, it is crucial to differentiate between public promises and the practical realities of congressional approval, budget constraints, and prevailing economic conditions before forming expectations.
This analysis will delve into the facts, political motivations, and economic limitations associated with the prospect of further stimulus payments, ultimately addressing the question of their likelihood.
Factors Favoring Stimulus Checks
Several factors suggest a potential for stimulus checks to be implemented:
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Existing Legislation: In July 2025, Josh Hawley introduced the American Worker Rebate Act, a proposal that aims to fund rebate-style checks using tariff revenue. While Donald Trump has stated that tariffs would fund these checks, this economic mechanism is not straightforward. Tariffs are taxes paid by importers, which are typically passed on to consumers, leading to increased prices and potentially reduced consumer spending, thus affecting revenue streams. Trump has also indicated that any checks would not arrive until mid-2026, ruling out their availability for the 2025 holiday season.
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Administration Discussions: Both Trump and treasury officials have publicly discussed the possibility of a "$2,000 tariff dividend" check for families earning under $100,000. This discussion is supported by a tweet from The Kobeissi Letter on November 9, 2025, announcing President Trump's intention to pay a "tariff dividend" of at least $2,000 per person, stating, "Stimulus checks are officially back."
BREAKING: President Trump announces that he will be paying a “tariff dividend” of at least $2,000 per person.
Stimulus checks are officially back. pic.twitter.com/Dt4UgHVMrT
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 9, 2025
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Economic Rationale: The current economic climate, characterized by weak growth or recessionary pressures, presents a strong argument for direct payments as a tool to stimulate consumer spending. This provides a "need" for such measures.
Potential Impact of Stimulus Checks on Crypto Markets
Historically, stimulus checks have correlated with increased retail investment in cryptocurrencies. For instance, following the CARES Act in 2020, which provided $1,200 checks to adults and $500 per child, Bitcoin experienced a significant surge. Within five weeks, $BTC increased by over 50%, and within a year, it rose by more than 900%.
During that period, exchanges reported a notable increase in $1,200 Bitcoin purchases, matching the stimulus check amount. Ethereum also saw substantial growth, moving from $120 to $4,800, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization expanded from $180 billion to over $3 trillion. While similar gains are not guaranteed, the implementation of stimulus checks would likely have a positive impact on the crypto market.
Factors Against Stimulus Checks
Several significant hurdles make the implementation of stimulus checks less probable:
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Funding Misconceptions: The assertion that tariffs will fully fund stimulus checks is economically inaccurate. As previously noted, tariffs increase costs for consumers. Polymarket sentiment indicates a low 1% probability of receiving tariff stimulus checks by December 31, 2025.
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Fiscal Constraints: U.S. tariff revenue from January to mid-2025 was approximately $122 billion, with full-year 2025 projections under current policy around $300 billion. Estimates suggest a broad "tariff-dividend" plan, providing $2,000 to a large segment of the population, could cost around $600 billion annually. Even a more targeted approach for individuals under $100,000 income, potentially covering 150 million people at a cost of $300 billion, would nearly exhaust or exceed projected tariff revenue, highlighting significant funding and legislative challenges.
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Supreme Court Review of Tariffs: The legality of Trump's tariffs is subject to a Supreme Court ruling. Several lower courts have questioned whether these tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), exceed presidential authority. The Court's application of the "major questions" doctrine, which requires explicit congressional authorization for broad executive powers with significant economic impact, suggests a potential challenge to the tariffs' legal basis. Many analysts believe the tariffs fall under this doctrine, and a majority of justices have expressed doubts about their legality under IEEPA. Consequently, there is a reasonable chance the tariffs could be deemed unlawful, although a definitive ruling and its timing remain uncertain.
Potential Funding Sources for Stimulus Checks
If stimulus checks were to be implemented, the funding would realistically come from several sources:
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Borrowing: This would likely involve issuing new U.S. Treasury bonds, purchased by investors, pension funds, and foreign governments, providing the government with cash for payments.
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Federal Reserve Action: The Federal Reserve could increase the money supply, a politically convenient but less transparent form of monetary expansion.
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Future Taxpayers: Increased national debt leads to higher interest payments, which would ultimately be covered by future tax revenue. Trump's emphasis on tariffs as a funding source is a politically simpler narrative than acknowledging extensive borrowing.
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Monetary Printing Example: A tweet from Alex Mason on November 3, 2025, highlighted the Federal Reserve printing $7.75 billion in one day, totaling $37 billion in a few days, described as the "biggest money printing event of the last 5 years" with potential implications for the crypto market.
🚨 BREAKING
The FED printed $7.75 billion today, bringing the total to $37 billion printed in the last few days.
This is the biggest money printing event of the last 5 years.
The crypto market is about to go parabolic. pic.twitter.com/MguOl9Uugo
— Alex Mason 👁△ (@AlexMasonCrypto) November 3, 2025
Historical Precedents and Political Hurdles
An earlier proposal from Trump approximately seven months prior mentioned a "$5k" stimulus check, linked to potential "savings" from a Dogecoin initiative. However, this was a proposal, not enacted policy, and it never progressed to Congress due to the need for legislative approval. This situation mirrors the current stimulus check discussion, where political pronouncements face significant administrative and legislative complexities.
Crypto Market Outlook Without Stimulus Checks
If stimulus checks do not materialize, the crypto market is likely to experience the following:
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Reduced Retail Liquidity: Expect slower or weaker market rallies as new retail inflows diminish, keeping speculative enthusiasm muted.
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Increased Reliance on Institutional Flows: The market will become more dependent on investment from institutional players.
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Stronger Correlation with Traditional Macroeconomics: Crypto's price movements will likely align more closely with broader economic trends.
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Stablecoin Accumulation: Instead of active deployment, stablecoin balances may increase, indicating a more cautious market sentiment. This is a key indicator for bull markets, and without checks, this signal may remain subdued.
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Delayed Altcoin Season: Bitcoin dominance is likely to remain higher for longer, as institutions tend to favor $BTC and $ETH. Smaller, retail-driven altcoins may underperform, delaying or weakening an "alt season."
While the market can still appreciate without stimulus checks, the nature of the bull run will differ. Instead of explosive, rapid gains, expect more gradual uptrends. Altcoin pumps will occur in rotations rather than simultaneously. Meme coin rallies may be shorter-lived with sharper corrections. Triggering widespread retail mania, akin to 2021 or 2017, would be more challenging. The bull market would shift from being retail-supercharged to institutionally driven, resulting in a more stable but less explosive environment.