Pudgy Penguin (PENGU) has emerged as a prominent meme coin on the Solana network, leading many holders to question its potential to surpass its all-time high price.
An analysis by Crypto Spotter, a YouTuber with a substantial following, offers insights into the current trajectory of PENGU, examining its chart, market capitalization, and critical risk levels.
According to Crypto Spotter's assessment, PENGU is not yet defunct, and its future price movement hinges on specific market indicators.
Crypto Spotter highlights that many projects struggle to reach new all-time highs when the required price increase is exceedingly large, often exceeding 1,500%. Such significant gains typically necessitate major news or substantial market hype.
However, the situation for Pudgy Penguin's price is different. Its all-time high is recorded at $0.068, and its current trading price is approximately $0.011. This indicates a required surge of about 522% to break its previous peak.
Spotter deems this percentage achievable, though not guaranteed. He suggests that the PENGU price still has a viable opportunity to retest its all-time high, particularly if market conditions improve and Solana continues to attract new users.
A significant warning is issued by Spotter: a price drop below $0.00204 would push PENGU into a "danger zone."
Falling below this threshold would complicate recovery efforts and potentially diminish the chances of a price breakout. As long as the PENGU price remains above this level, its chart structure is considered viable, and the trend has the potential to rebound.
Potential Price Targets for Pudgy Penguin
To establish realistic price targets, Crypto Spotter employs a market-share analysis, comparing PENGU's market capitalization to that of Solana.
Currently, PENGU holds a market cap of approximately $737 million, while Solana's market cap stands near $79.8 billion. This positions PENGU at about 0.92% of Solana's total market size.
During PENGU's all-time high, its market share contribution was 3.86%, with Solana's market cap then around $70 billion. Spotter uses this historical data to construct a potential price range.
Assuming Solana reaches a market cap of $200 billion in a robust market, and PENGU maintains a market share between its historical peak and current levels, PENGU's market cap could potentially range from $1.84 billion to $7.72 billion.
Translating these market cap figures into price points, Spotter projects a rough range between $0.03 and $0.12. This range is influenced by market momentum and serves as a mathematical target based on past and present market share dynamics, rather than a definitive prediction.
Assessing the Viability of PENGU
Crypto Spotter's perspective is that PENGU remains an active and viable project.
The coin does not require an extraordinary rally of 2,000% to surpass its previous all-time high; a more attainable increase of approximately 500% is needed. This level of growth is still considered feasible for a meme coin that benefits from strong community engagement and liquidity within the Solana ecosystem.
The primary risk factor identified is a price decline below $0.00204. Until this critical support level is breached, the PENGU chart indicates potential for recovery, suggesting that the narrative surrounding the coin is far from over.