At 13:00 (UTC) on December 8, the Bitfinex-supported Layer1 blockchain Stable announced the official launch of its mainnet, Stable Chain. Simultaneously, it launched its native governance token, STABLE, and an independent operating organization, the Stable Foundation. This network utilizes USDT issued by Tether as its Gas fuel token, with all on-chain transactions settled in USDT.
The launch of the Stable mainnet has generated significant attention within the crypto ecosystem and the community. In the week leading up to its launch, Google Trends indicated a gradual surge in its popularity as the launch date approached. Beyond Stable's inherent popularity, the urgent need for a focal point in the stablecoin-driven public chain sector is also a contributing factor.
The crypto market has seen various dominant narratives, from Ethereum's scaling solutions and the explosive growth of the EVM ecosystem to the resurgence of the Solana-style performance narrative. However, within the "public chain battle," stablecoin-driven public chains have consistently remained in a lukewarm state, never truly solidifying a dominant position.
The Market's Embrace of Stablecoin Public Chains in a Cold Cycle
While the broader market has entered a relatively cold cycle, the question arises whether the market will truly embrace the narrative of stablecoin public chains. If 2021-2022 was characterized by competition in public chain performance, the focus of the crypto industry in 2023-2024 has quietly shifted back to the "most fundamental value layer" – encompassing payments, cross-border settlement, dollar stablecoin exports, and the monetization of on-chain dollars.
The emergence of Stable Chain is not coincidental; it has arrived at a opportune moment, coinciding with tightening regulations, the global expansion of stablecoins, and the increasing prominence of dollar-pegged assets as the "base currency" for international crypto capital.
The most compelling aspect of Stable Chain is its position as the first public chain directly operated by the actual controller of the stablecoin (Tether). This signifies the industry's first vertically integrated "stablecoin infrastructure chain."
Stablecoins: The Most Stable Traffic Entrance in the Crypto World
With a global USDT circulation exceeding 120 billion USD, more than half of which is in Asia, USDT has become an "underground dollar system" for emerging markets. A chain that uses USDT as its Gas token effectively transforms USDT into the blockchain's "fuel" and "operating system." This is a highly symbolic development within the industry.
The Regulatory Era and the "Safest" and "Rigid-Demand" Narrative of Stablecoin Infrastructure
As the United States advances stablecoin legislation, Circle collaborates with major banks, and Tether undergoes proactive auditing, the industry is entering a "legalization stage" for stablecoins. This presents a significant opportunity: over the next five years, stablecoins are poised to become the most rigid demand in the Web3 world. Consequently, whoever controls stablecoin infrastructure will control the underlying traffic.
Stable Chain is strategically positioned to capitalize on this trend.
Payment-Level Settlement Speed + USDT Gas: A Disruptive Experience
Stable Chain highlights two key selling points:
- •Sub-second confirmation times
- •USDT as Gas (native GAS-TOKEN MODEL)
These features directly address a major pain point in current on-chain operations: a chain designed for ordinary users and cross-border payments should not expose users to the uncertainty of Gas costs arising from token price volatility. This is why the market is refocusing on this sector, recognizing it as a practically demanded infrastructure logic rather than mere empty hype.
The STABLE Controversies: Insider Trading, KYC Lag, and Value Doubts
The Insider Trading Incident: Hundreds of Millions of USDT Deposited 23 Minutes in Advance
Stable opened two rounds of deposits prior to its mainnet launch, both of which were met with considerable controversy. The first phase of pre-deposit, initiated in late October with a cap of 825 million USD, was reportedly filled within minutes of the announcement. The community raised suspicions of insider positioning, with the top-ranked wallet allegedly depositing hundreds of millions of USDT 23 minutes before the deposit window officially opened.
The KYC Lag Incident: System and Technical Capability Trigger Community Criticism
While the project team did not directly address the insider trading allegations, they proceeded to open the second round of pre-deposit on November 6, with a cap of 500 million USD. Despite the prior controversy, market expectations for Stable remained high. However, upon opening the second phase, the website experienced significant slowdowns and lag, leading to widespread complaints and criticism from the community.
The combined deposits from the first and second phases exceeded 1.325 billion USD in USDT. At the close of a bear market, a deposit scale of this magnitude is noteworthy and demonstrates a core issue: the market still holds substantial capital willing to invest in "stablecoin infrastructure." The controversy, from another perspective, underscores the genuine market heat surrounding Stable.
The Most Controversial Point About STABLE: Its Role Beyond Gas
A significant point of contention for many investors is the role of STABLE itself, given that Gas fees are entirely paid in USDT. This raises concerns about STABLE's intrinsic value and whether it will be relegated to a mere "governance token tool." However, from a deeper economic design perspective, STABLE's value is derived from three key components:
1. STABLE as the "Power Center" of the Entire Network
On Stable Chain, all consensus participation is managed through DPoS + StableBFT. This structure implies:
- •Holding STABLE grants the ability to become a validator.
- •Holding STABLE allows for delegation.
- •Holding STABLE provides the power to decide on protocol upgrades and key parameters.
In essence, while USDT serves as the fuel, STABLE acts as the steering wheel. A pragmatic view is that in the Web3 world, power and governance inherently possess value.
2. STABLE as the Main Asset for Ecosystem Incentives
- •Cross-chain rewards
- •Liquidity incentives
- •Early ecosystem developer rewards
- •Partner subsidies
- •Network growth incentives
STABLE functions as the "reserve pool for the incentive mechanism" of the entire network. In the crypto industry, this role typically translates to a sustained source of demand.
3. Token Structure: Coexisting Risk and Opportunity
STABLE's token allocation suggests no significant short-term sell pressure, with a continuous release over the long term, characteristic of a "large-scale infrastructure project curve." This indicates that STABLE's price trend is likely to follow a pattern of an initial sentiment-driven rise, followed by a period of gradual digestion, and subsequently a medium-to-long-term trend dictated by ecosystem growth. This trajectory bears a resemblance to the early price movements of projects like Plasma, TON, and Solana.
Is STABLE's First-Day Valuation of 2-3 Billion USD High? Not Necessarily, But the Risk is Extremely High
According to pricing in the derivatives market, STABLE's implied Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) is approximately 3 billion USD. While some consider this an "overvaluation," a horizontal comparison across the industry reveals it is not an exaggerated figure:
- •Plasma: FDV 1.67 billion
- •TON: FDV 20+ billion
- •Solana: FDV 80+ billion
- •Avalanche: FDV 6 billion
- •Aptos: FDV 6 billion
In this context, pricing Stable Chain at 2-3 billion USD is not unreasonable. The critical factors determining STABLE's mid-term price trend are not the current valuation itself, but rather:
- •Can the valuation withstand sentiment volatility?
- •Can it withstand ecosystem growth?
- •Can it withstand the emergence of a "Gas model that does not rely on STABLE"?
The Future of Stablecoin Public Chains: Three Certain Trends and Two Biggest Risks
Trend 1: Stablecoins Will Continue to Expand Their Market Dominance
USDT currently stands as the sole asset in the crypto industry possessing global currency attributes. As long as the crypto market continues to require cross-border transactions, OTC services, and Web3 payment solutions, stablecoin chains will persist.
Trend 2: Vertical Integration of Chains and Stablecoins Will Accelerate
Stable Chain represents the first public chain "built by the stablecoin issuer itself." It is plausible that in the future, entities like Circle and PayPal might pursue similar vertically integrated approaches.
Trend 3: Stablecoin Chains Will Experience Exponential Growth in Emerging Markets
This growth is particularly anticipated in regions such as:
- •Southeast Asia
- •The Middle East
- •Latin America
- •Africa
Users in these regions are less concerned with "decentralization ideals" and more focused on practical aspects such as: affordability of transfers, transaction speed, and the ability to use dollars. Stable Chain is strategically targeting this market.
Final Conclusion: Does the Market Still Buy the Stablecoin Public Chain Narrative?
- •Short term: Yes, driven by current heat, pre-deposits, and TGE sentiment.
- •Mid term: A wait-and-see approach is warranted, dependent on the speed of ecosystem development.
- •Long term: The potential is extremely strong, but it still requires the landing of real-world stablecoin usage scenarios.
Whether Stable Chain evolves into the next "rich-ecosystem chain" will be determined by market dynamics and development efforts. However, it is highly probable that it will become a pivotal "payments-grade infrastructure" within Web3.
From an investment perspective, STABLE is a token that requires time to mature. It is an infrastructure token rather than a speculative one. From an industry trend standpoint, stablecoin public chains are not a fleeting phenomenon and will increasingly gain importance. However, sustained market adoption hinges on the creation of truly scalable usage scenarios within this domain.
