BTC’s FOMC Pattern: Will a Crash Spark the Next ATH Run?

Key Insights:

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  Bitcoin has dipped 6–8% after every recent FOMC meeting, then hit new all-time highs.
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  BTC is stuck between $107K–$116K; breakout or breakdown depends on upcoming macro decisions.
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  Bitcoin is on its sixth straight green six-month candle—an all-time historical first.

Bitcoin was trading near $112,941 as markets brace for the upcoming FOMC decision. Over the past three meetings, BTC has followed a similar pattern: a short-term dip followed by a new all-time high before the next announcement. Traders are now watching to see if history repeats.

Pattern Repeating Around FOMC Events?

In June, July, and September, Bitcoin dropped between 6% and 8% immediately after the FOMC meetings. These moves were short-lived, with each followed by a rally to fresh highs. The most recent drops were measured at -7.9%, -6.2%, and -7.9%, respectively.

The current price setup shows a similar post-meeting dip forming. Bitcoin is down from recent highs and hovering around $112,900. If the past pattern holds, a move toward $104,000 could come first, followed by a push to new highs.

As Ted noted,

“Will this pattern repeat again?”

Range-Bound and Losing Momentum

According to Daan Crypto Trades, BTC remains inside a defined range. Price has tested $116,000 twice and failed to break through. It has now dropped closer to the high-volume area near $111,000, which has served as a local support.

Bitcoin is trading around the 4-hour 200 EMA, having lost the 200 MA. This shows that recent momentum has cooled. Daan commented, “Anything in between those levels is just chop,” describing the current sideways movement. Until BTC breaks above $116,000 or below $107,000, the price may stay range-bound.

Unprecedented Long-Term Strength

Bitcoin is working on its sixth straight green six-month candle. This has never happened before. The streak began after the 2022 bottom and has now extended into late 2025. The current candle is still open but showing gains.

Killa pointed,

“Bitcoin has never had 6 green six-month candles ever in history.”

The trend reflects consistent demand, likely supported by ETF flows, institutional interest, and strong hands holding through volatility.

Key Levels and What’s Next

With the FOMC event approaching, markets are on alert. BTC's price action around $107,000 and $116,000 remains critical. A clear move outside this range could decide the next direction.

For now, traders are watching for a possible dip like past meetings. If the pattern continues, Bitcoin could reach a new high in the weeks that follow.