Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant losses as the new week began, with markets heavily influenced by global trade tariff uncertainty. The cryptocurrency dipped below $92,000, prompting warnings from traders about a potential deeper support retest. Tariffs have once again taken center stage, with analysis suggesting conditions may worsen before the risk-asset bull run can continue. In contrast, gold and silver have made fresh all-time highs, fueling hope that Bitcoin will follow suit. Meanwhile, upcoming US macroeconomic data is expected, and the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts is fading into the background. Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin is seen as laying the groundwork for a sustainable uptrend.
Bitcoin saw sharp losses as US futures markets opened, a move many anticipated due to ongoing tariff discussions. Nerves over international trade sent risk assets tumbling, mirroring infamous moments from 2025. BTC/USD briefly fell below $92,000 before recovering, according to data from TradingView.
Trader CrypNuevo summarized the outlook, anticipating a volatile week ahead due to renewed broader market uncertainty. With the US observing the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday, the full stock market reaction is expected on Tuesday. CrypNuevo noted that markets dislike uncertainty but are drawn to its resolution, suggesting potential downside pressure pushing prices back within the range and possibly towards the range lows before any significant reversal. Key support levels include the 2026 yearly open around $87,000 and the range lows at $80,500, both now considered targets.
An examination of exchange order books revealed mounting long liquidations below the yearly open, increasing the likelihood of a liquidity run lower. CrypNuevo elaborated that the most probable scenario involves a stock market shakeout leading Bitcoin to drop back into the range and trend towards the range lows in the coming weeks.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that a crucial breakout level from earlier, the 2025 yearly open at $93,500, had been lost. He warned that it is essential for bulls to defend this breakout after two months of sideways price action. If the price falls back below $93,000-$94,000, it could indicate a liquidity grab within a larger downtrend.
$BTC Moved straight down from the futures open when TradFi got a chance to react to the new tariffs announced over the weekend.
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) January 19, 2026
Price found support on the 4H 200EMA for now but has lost the breakout level.
This still has not been a market which I'm actively trading, which I am… pic.twitter.com/FSIxgWrnIM
Tariffs Promise a Week of Mayhem
Trade wars have re-entered the spotlight for risk-asset traders as tensions escalate between the US and the EU over Greenland. Markets reacted immediately upon the futures market opening late Sunday, triggering volatility even with Wall Street closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday. Retaliatory measures, including the potential cancellation of bilateral trade talks, are already being exchanged. The US plans to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, Netherlands, and Finland starting February 1. As previously reported, crypto and stocks showed high sensitivity to tariff-related news throughout 2025. In April, Bitcoin hit a new local low under $75,000 following US President Donald Trump's tariff announcement.
Commentators are now considering whether the current situation will follow a similar pattern to past trade disputes. The Kobeissi Letter noted that President Trump consistently begins negotiations with a strong, threatening message as a negotiation tactic that has proven effective. They referred to Trump's "tariff playbook," a predictable pattern of introducing trade measures to which markets have historically reacted similarly. The market reaction is expected to involve an emotional selloff, though the impact might be less severe this time due to more time for news digestion. The playbook outlines 12 phases over several weeks, during which markets experience bouts of weakness due to uncertainty, but the ultimate outcome favors risk. Step 11 suggests that over the next 2-4 weeks, various members of the Trump Administration will tease progress toward a trade agreement, culminating in the announcement of a trade deal and new record highs for markets.
Gold, Silver Push to New Highs
While risk assets face short-term headwinds, precious metals are benefiting from the prevailing market chaos. Gold approached $7,000 per ounce at the start of the week, reaching its highest level ever, while silver also hit new all-time highs at $94. Kobeissi commented that gold continues to signal future market movements. Against Bitcoin, gold remains close to two-year highs, having nearly doubled in BTC terms since August 2025.
Network economist Timothy Peterson expressed confidence in Bitcoin's ability to mirror gold's historical performance. He stated that Bitcoin and Gold trendlines are closely aligned, suggesting both are heading towards the same destination via different paths. Last week, Peterson predicted that gold could experience at least five more years of a bull market, with stocks potentially seeing an even longer uptrend.
3/3
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) January 16, 2026
1) Are stocks at top-of-cycle? Yes! Does that mean crash? No!
2) How long can stocks stay on top? 20 years! ('85 - '05) The reason: the internet.
3) What about this time? 20 years! The reason: AI + robotics.
4) Is gold at top-of-cycle? No!
5) How long till it… pic.twitter.com/u8VmP66n7e
Mixed Inflation Cues Into Fed Rate Decision
Beyond tariffs, traders are also monitoring delayed US macroeconomic data, particularly the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for November is scheduled for release on Thursday, alongside ongoing initial jobless claims and the first revision of Q3 GDP data. Even without the tariff catalyst, the macroeconomic landscape presents contradictions. A strong start to 2026 for stocks is occurring amidst significant tensions between the Fed and the US government regarding financial policy, coupled with broader geopolitical uncertainties, including those in the Middle East. Trading resource Mosaic Asset Company observed in its newsletter, "The Market Mosaic," that while investors are focused on potential volatility from tariff and geopolitical headlines, recent market action has been extremely bullish. Mosaic also noted a commodities breakout that has significant implications for the inflation outlook. Last week, reports indicated mixed US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for November moving in different directions. The Fed is widely expected to maintain current interest rates at its January meeting, offering no immediate liquidity relief for crypto and risk assets.
Bitcoin Markets Flip “Structurally Healthy”
Bitcoin's price action is providing analysts with reasons for optimism, signaling a distinct trend shift for the first time in months. According to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, buyers are gradually regaining market control, as evidenced by last week's move towards $98,000. Contributor COINDREAM noted in a "Quicktake" blog post that the recent Bitcoin rebound is not driven by leverage-fueled futures trading but by the recovery of genuine buying demand in the spot market. This observation is based on cumulative volume delta (CVD) data for both spot and derivatives markets. CryptoQuant stated that Spot Taker CVD shifted from sell-dominant to buy-dominant, followed by futures Taker CVD, indicating that the market is not in the late stage of an overheated rally but rather in the early phase of demand recovery. This new "structurally healthy" uptrend contrasts sharply with most of Q4 2025, which saw persistent downside after a record liquidity wipeout at the October all-time highs of $126,000. CryptoQuant data shows that overall open interest (OI) on derivatives has decreased by nearly 17.5% since then in BTC terms. Contributor Darkfost commented in another "Quicktake" post that Open Interest is showing signs of a gradual recovery, suggesting a slow return of risk appetite. If this trend continues and strengthens, it could increasingly support a continuation of bullish momentum, although the rebound remains relatively modest for now.
