Key Analysis Points for Bitcoin's Trajectory
Bitcoin's recent relief rally, which pushed its price towards $91,000, appears to be losing momentum. However, analysts maintain a positive short-term outlook for BTC, suggesting the upward trend is still intact.
- •To continue its ascent, Bitcoin must overcome immediate resistance levels situated between $92,000 and $95,000.
- •A recovery in spot volume and overall trading activity is crucial for lifting BTC back into the six-figure price range.
Bitcoin Bulls Need to Reclaim the Yearly Open
The BTC/USD pair has been consolidating within a narrow range, fluctuating between $90,300 and $92,000 since its recovery from multimonth lows of $80,000. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView has tracked this movement.
Private wealth manager Swissblock identified Bitcoin's break below the yearly open at $93,300 as a significant shift in the prevailing trend.
The trend only flips if BTC reclaims $94K–$95K.
According to Swissblock, the bullish outlook for BTC now depends on the cryptocurrency holding the defensive zone between $83,000 and $85,000, where substantial demand is expected to emerge to form a bottom.
Analysis from Glassnode's cost basis distribution heatmap indicates resistance in the $93,000-$96,000 range, an area where approximately 500,000 BTC were acquired by investors.
Glassnode further noted that the next significant barrier is expected between $100,000 and $108,000, where recent buyers are likely to present some degree of resistance. Breaking above these supply clusters is considered a key prerequisite for regaining momentum toward a new all-time high.
Breaking above the top-buyers’ supply clusters is a key prerequisite for regaining momentum toward a new ATH.
Previously, Cointelegraph reported that bulls are targeting the $97,000-$98,000 zone as the resistance level that would confirm a recovery, with the subsequent target set at $100,000, a move that appears to be supported by positive futures market signals.
Bitcoin's On-Chain Transfer Volume Experiences a 20% Decline
The cryptocurrency market is currently in a cooling-off phase, with both Bitcoin's on-chain transfer volume and spot trading volume showing a decrease.
Over the past week, the seven-day moving average of on-chain transfer volume has fallen by approximately 20%, now standing at $87 billion.
Additionally, the current daily spot trading volume is around $12.8 billion, a figure considerably lower than the peaks observed during this bull market's more active periods.
The accompanying chart illustrates that the recent push above $91,000 was not accompanied by a significant increase in spot volume, indicating a reduction in investor engagement.
This divergence highlights a lack of speculative fervor necessary to drive prices higher.
An increase in spot volume, signifying heightened trading activity on exchanges, would indicate stronger investor demand and market conviction. This pattern has been observed in past rallies where surges in spot volume preceded price breakouts.
As previously reported by Cointelegraph, spot markets were beginning to show signs of recovery, with Bitcoin's taker cumulative volume delta (CVD) moving back towards neutral from negative territory.
If this metric turns to favor buyers, Bitcoin could experience a sustained rally, similar to the period between May and July when the BTC price increased by 32% to reach its previous all-time high of around $123,000.