Bitcoin bulls battle for control of $112,000
It seemed highly unlikely recently, but Bitcoin closed the weekly candle above a key price level.
After threatening new September lows under $109,000, BTC/USD staged a last‑minute rebound to reclaim $112,000 as support.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms that BTC price point holding into the week’s first Asia trading session.
Commenting on the latest BTC price action, market participants remained wary, arguing that more evidence is needed before assuming the bull market is back in full force.
“$BTC also had a pump just like $ETH, mostly due to short positions getting closed,” crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows wrote in a post on X, referring to a similar recovery for largest altcoin Ether (ETH).
“For a strong Bitcoin rally, a daily close above $113,500 is needed. Otherwise, BTC will most likely revisit its lows again.”
Popular trader Roman shared that sentiment, expecting the price to gyrate between its narrow trading range's upper and lower boundaries.
“Currently just retesting and resistance so unless we blow through on high volume, I expect some ping pong between here and 108k,” he summarized, demanding that bulls retake $118,000.
With the monthly and quarterly close less than 48 hours away, volatility was expected.
Data from CoinGlass shows that at $112,000, BTC/USD would lock in 3% September gains, with Q3 upside at around 4.4%.
Those numbers would represent average performance for Bitcoin, with both September and Q3 returns historically highly variable.
“$BTC Has seen very little volatility and is closing the quarter relatively flat. This is not out of the ordinary for Q3 as you can see,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote about the data in an X post Monday.
“It's the worst quarter on average with ‘only’ a ~6% increase on average throughout its history. So we're pretty much in line just like Q2.”
Daan Crypto Trades conversely anticipated a “very exciting” Q4 based on past performance.
“BTC has been pretty reliable though so it makes more sense to watch in my opinion. Especially with it lagging behind the likes of $GOLD & Stocks the past few weeks,” he concluded.
Long liquidations on the radar as new CME gap appears
Bitcoin returning above $112,000 overnight sparked a considerable reshuffling of liquidity on exchange order books.
CoinGlass data shows how price sliced through late short positions, with large players subsequently adding more ask liquidity around $113,000.
In the 24 hours to the time of writing, total crypto liquidations were $350 million, with shorts accounting for $260 million of the total.
Commenting on the order‑book setup, market commentators are now keen to determine where BTC price may head next, with liquidity acting as a “magnet” both up and down.
“I like when the market sentiment is bearish after a correction during a HTF uptrend,” popular trader CrypNuevo wrote in part of an X thread Sunday.
“I think it's the case - a drop below $100k seems to be the market consensus right now. So instead, I'm inclining more towards a recovery from here or the liquidity grab at $106.9k and then up.”
Current data suggests that a trip below $107,000 would liquidate a giant $5 billion in longs.
This and the incoming monthly close continue to provide grounds for caution among some market participants.
These include popular trader Killa, who noted the new weekend “gap” appearing in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures — a price “magnet” on its own.
“If we re-evaluate price action, we pumped on CME open. Usually, when we do that, these particular gaps can take a few days or a week to fill,” he noted Monday.
“Since we have both monthly and quarterly closes, I believe they’re building long liquidity before taking out the weekend lows.”
US jobs data comes amid more pressure on Fed’s Powell
A familiar sight greets crypto and risk‑asset traders this week as US employment data and Federal Reserve officials take center stage.
Various high‑ranking names will comment on the US economic outlook amid an emerging split in attitudes toward interest‑rate cuts.
Those cuts are what traders want to see going forward, as they represent an easing of policy and imply more liquidity flowing into risk assets.
As Cointelegraph reported, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are far from unanimous when it comes to cuts and the pace of their implementation.
In a speech of his own last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell — already under heavy pressure from US President Donald Trump to speed up policy easing — sought to strike a balance between hawkish and dovish language.
“In recent months, it has become clear that the balance of risks has shifted, prompting us to move our policy stance closer to neutral at our meeting last week,” he said after the FOMC agreed a 0.25% cut at its September meeting.
Trump and others, meanwhile, continue to demand that the Fed take more drastic action. In a now‑deleted post on Truth Social over the weekend, Trump posted a cartoon of him firing Powell, having called for his resignation throughout 2025.
“The good news is that we’re powering through his Incompetence, and we’ll soon be doing, as a Country, better than we have ever done before!”
Private and public sector employment data and initial jobless claims are due throughout the week, forming the primary potential volatility catalyst.
Gold smashes $3,800 as the week begins
The week may have started with some modest relief for Bitcoin bulls, but gold is already stealing the show once again.
XAU/USD hit a fresh all‑time high on Monday, passing $3,800 per ounce for the first time in history amid a comedown in US dollar strength.
The latest move repeats a pattern already on every Bitcoin trader’s mind this quarter — gold outperforming Bitcoin.
In its latest regular newsletter, “Macro Monday,” market insights resource Reflexivity Research drew attention to the weakening Bitcoin/Gold Ratio. It said this is “signaling a preference for gold over Bitcoin as a hedge.”
Proponents nonetheless maintain that BTC price strength can copy gold after a statutory delay, thus preserving historical trends.
Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise, tied the current situation to different macroeconomic phenomena.
“Why has bitcoin been lagging behind gold in 2025? Because gold has been more sensitive to monetary policy & US Dollar while bitcoin has been more sensitive to global growth expectations,” he told X followers Monday.
Dragosch said that just as growth expectations follow monetary policy changes with a lag, so too will Bitcoin follow in gold’s footsteps with a “significant rally.”
Bitcoin speculators panic at local lows
When it comes to Bitcoiners’ reactions to the recent BTC price dip, new analysis reveals textbook market behavior.
Related: The hidden force behind Bitcoin and Ether price swings: Options expiry
The difference between long‑term (LTH) and short‑term (STH) holders is notable, with the latter selling coins at a loss while “old hands” ride out the storm.
In one of its “Quicktake” blog posts Monday, on‑chain analytics platform CryptoQuant used a classic on‑chain metric to show that for investors, this dip is like any other.
“We saw the same setup in late 2024—short‑term capitulation while LTH conviction stayed strong—right before a major rebound,” contributor Woo Min‑Kyu summarized.
The post used a derivative of Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures the extent to which coins moving on‑chain are doing so in profit or at a loss. The “ratio” of LTH and STH SOPR confirms that newer investors responded to the dip by selling at a loss.
“Short‑term pain, long‑term gain,” CryptoQuant concluded.
As Cointelegraph reported, STH entities — those hodling for up to six months — have always been sensitive to snap BTC price volatility, especially when the market crosses their aggregate cost basis.
The average STH cost basis, per CryptoQuant data, is currently around $109,800.
