Bitcoin (BTC) begins December amid unusual market dynamics, breaking free from its historical trend of bearish December performance following negative Novembers. This year’s structural shifts—driven by liquidity movements, momentum, and cycle deviations—are challenging the conventional seasonal narrative, suggesting a potential bullish outlook despite typical seasonal headwinds.
Key Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Trajectory
- •Bitcoin’s December trajectory might pivot positive if leverage declines and key technical levels are reclaimed, indicating a more stable foundation for gains.
- •Macroeconomic liquidity measures, including M2 velocity, are diverging from Bitcoin’s buying activity, signaling a late-stage market cycle.
- •Traditional halving-based cycles are evolving, with spot ETF inflows and global liquidity factors reshaping Bitcoin’s price dynamics.
- •Bitcoin’s recent price action demonstrates a shift from typical seasonal patterns, supported by technical consolidations and market sentiment indicators.
Reevaluating Bitcoin’s Seasonal Patterns and Cycle Deviations
Historically, Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter gains have echoed strong seasonal patterns, with December often rallying after a challenging November. However, in 2025, market structure has significantly diverged from these historical cycles.
Bitcoin recently reclaimed its monthly rolling volume-weighted average price (rVWAP), signaling controlled distribution and alignment with higher-term trends. Meanwhile, open interest has sharply declined from around $94 billion to $60 billion, a reset that has preserved spot inflows and established a cleaner base for potential continuation. Technical analysis shows liquidity clusters migrating from downside liquidation zones near $80,000 to upside zones with critical liquidation points at $96,000 and over $100,000, supporting a bullish scenario.
Despite these promising indicators, caution remains. Market analysts warn that the buy/sell ratios reflect urgency rather than strength, and broader macroeconomic indicators, such as M2 velocity, are slowing, hinting at economic fatigue. This environment creates a late-cycle scenario where markets seem exuberant even as underlying fundamentals weaken.
These conditions test whether Bitcoin can sustain a positive December, especially as broader liquidity measures and macroeconomic trends evolve. Recent reports highlight that the strongest trading days hint at market participation peaks rather than sustainable accumulation, framing caution amid the optimism.
Beyond the Traditional Cycle: Structural and Liquidity Factors
Experts argue that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is no longer the sole driver of its price trends. Analysts point to the impact of spot ETF inflows and rising global liquidity, which are accelerating price discovery beyond halving expectations, moving Bitcoin into a different phase of its market lifecycle.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe suggests that current dynamics resemble an extended liquidity phase seen in late 2016 and late 2019, with risk assets gaining strength despite mixed macroeconomic signals. He notes that indicators such as the CNY/USD and ETH/BTC correlation are signaling early signs of expansion, not peaking.
“This stage is comparable to Q1/2 2016, Q4 2019. We are not near a top on Bitcoin, and we are in the final phase of high returns,”
Thus, the future trajectory hinges less on repeating past seasonal patterns and more on structural market shifts, including ETF inflows and liquidity rotations, which seem to be reshaping Bitcoin’s cycle landscape significantly.