Market Sentiment Shifts on Bitcoin Price Forecast
Bitcoin's probability of reaching $130,000 in October 2025 has fallen to almost 0%, impacted by a massive $19 billion liquidation due to U.S.–China trade tensions.
The sharp drop in Bitcoin's price expectations reflects market instability, causing traders to reassess positions amid geopolitical tensions and financial market upheavals.
The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $130,000 in October has significantly dropped. Prediction markets such as Polymarket suggested a near-zero chance for the milestone. Financial sentiments and on-chain metrics reflect similar caution among market participants.
Primary influencers such as Arthur Hayes and CZ have remained silent on any imminent price surge. Robert Kiyosaki maintains a long-term bullish stance but has not commented on short-term targets. "Bitcoin is on track to surpass $250,000 this year," he previously noted. Professional traders echo a similar sentiment.
Market Liquidation and Geopolitical Impact
The crypto market faced its largest liquidation event, with $19 billion affected, leading to BTC reaching a low of $110,020. The event was fueled by U.S.–China trade tensions impacting overall market stability and investor confidence.
Funding activity and institutional interest have taken a hit. The corresponding lack of substantial TVL increases and staking on DeFi platforms indicates muted enthusiasm from investors. Market resilience remains the central focus for stakeholders.
Historical Trends and Future Outlook
Despite previous recovery trends after large market upheavals, this marks BTC's first monthly drop since 2018. Community discussions reflect a cautious outlook, emphasizing security over speculative ventures.
Should current trends continue, potential technological advancements or regulatory shifts could further alter the landscape. Historical data suggests that such liquidations can precede a market rally, although current sentiment remains conservative.