Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at crypto asset management company Bitwise, has stated that sustained long-term demand for Bitcoin ETFs could lead to a parabolic surge in Bitcoin prices.
Hougan drew a parallel between the potential trajectory of Bitcoin and the price movements observed in the gold market around 2025.
Supply and Demand Dynamics: Gold and Bitcoin
Hougan emphasized that the fundamental drivers of both gold and Bitcoin prices are the interplay of supply and demand. While the recent surge in gold prices, approximately 65% in 2025, is widely attributed to significant central bank acquisitions, a closer look reveals a comparable dynamic unfolding for Bitcoin today. Following the US government's freezing and seizure of Russian Treasury bonds in 2022, central banks dramatically increased their gold purchases. Annual acquisitions escalated from around 500 tons to 1,000 tons and have maintained this elevated level since.
The Lag Effect on Price
Despite the substantial increase in demand, its impact on gold prices was not immediate. Gold saw modest gains of only 2% in 2022, followed by 13% in 2023, and 27% in 2024. The significant "parabolic" price acceleration occurred in 2025. Hougan explained this phenomenon by noting that in the initial years of increased demand, existing holders were willing to supply the market. However, as time progressed, these sellers' available inventory diminished. Consequently, with demand continuing unabated and the accessible supply shrinking, prices began to rise rapidly.
Bitcoin ETF Impact and Future Outlook
Hougan believes that this same underlying mechanism is applicable to Bitcoin and its spot ETFs. Since the introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024, the volume of ETF purchases has surpassed 100% of the newly mined Bitcoin supply. Nevertheless, a parabolic price increase has not yet materialized because current Bitcoin holders are still offloading their assets. However, Hougan anticipates that if ETF demand continues at its current pace, these sellers will eventually deplete their reserves. This impending supply squeeze, he predicts, will accelerate Bitcoin's price upwards.