André Dragosch, Bitwise’s European Research Director, has presented his latest study examining the relationship between Bitcoin (BTC) and macroeconomic indicators, calling it “the most important Bitcoin & Macro analysis I’ve ever done.”
Dragosch's analysis focuses on how Bitcoin reflects global growth expectations by addressing the fundamental financial market question: “What is the market currently pricing in?”
By combining various macro survey data, Dragosch determined the global growth scenario that Bitcoin is currently factoring into its price. The findings suggest that Bitcoin is pricing in an extremely pessimistic global growth outlook, a level not observed since the Federal Reserve's tightening in 2022, the FTX crash, and the COVID-19 shock in 2020. The expert stated, “Bitcoin is currently pricing in a growth environment that portends a recession.” He further elaborated, “In other words, most of the bad news has already been reflected in the price.”
Dragosch noted that the macro outlook can sometimes be mispriced, and these periods are “the most productive for generating information.” He explained that Bitcoin’s performance can both exceed and fall short of macro expectations. Identifying as a “contrarian on macro issues,” Dragosch believes the current outlook presents a unique opportunity.
Growth Expectations vs. Bitcoin's Pricing
According to Dragosch, global economic growth expectations have actually entered a phase of reacceleration, a trend projected to strengthen until 2026. However, he points out that Bitcoin is still “recession-pricing.” Dragosch argues that this discrepancy creates a strong bullish foundation for Bitcoin.
The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-return environment was during the COVID-19 era. Bitcoin recovered rapidly after the March 2020 shock and surged sixfold by the end of the year. We may be facing a similar macro setup now. There's a sense of trapped energy, like a ball being held underwater.