[Bitop Review] BTC & ETH Just Rallyed 10% — Here's Why It's Probably the Final Bull Trap of 2025

Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC experienced a significant decline for nearly two weeks, starting November 11. The cryptocurrency found support at $80,600 on November 21 and subsequently rallied, reaching a high of $89,228 yesterday, marking a gain of over 10% from its recent low.

The price has been in a downtrend since reaching its all-time high on October 6. Trading volume was notably low even at that peak. Volume has also been steadily decreasing since the April low of $74,508. While volume has recently returned to similar low levels, it now accompanies a downward price movement. Concurrently, the Fear & Greed Index has remained in the "Extreme Fear" territory for the past week. Over the last month, it has been in "Fear" or "Extreme Fear" approximately 80% of the time, never crossing above the neutral 50 level.

The robust performance of the AI sector has drawn substantial capital into technology stocks and AI-related themes, resulting in a comparatively subdued trading atmosphere in the crypto market. All indicators suggest that the bull market may be entering its concluding phase.

Medium-Term Outlook and Strategy

Continued downward pressure is anticipated in the medium term. However, following the recent sharp decline, a short-term corrective bounce is likely. Investors may consider initiating short positions on this rebound. It is crucial to pay close attention to price action within the $94,000–$97,000 zone, which corresponds to the Fibonacci 0.5–0.382 retracement levels and a previous high-volume area. The daily candle highs observed from November 15–17 were concentrated between $96,000–$96,850, confirming significant overhead supply in this region.

The recommended strategy involves entering short positions within the identified zone. Staggered take-profit targets are set at $80,600, $77,777, and $75,000. A further target is placed at $67,150, contingent on the breach of the prior low at $74,508. A stop-loss can be positioned above $102,000.

Reference Levels for BTC

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  Direction: Short
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  Entry Zones: $96,000–$96,850 / $94,000–$97,000
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  Take-Profit: $80,600 / $77,777 / $75,000 / $67,150
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  Stop-Loss: Greater than $102,000

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH has mirrored BTC's price action, finding support near $2,623 on November 21 and subsequently rallying over 13%. Yesterday, an attempt to break the $3,000 mark failed, with the price topping out at $2,987. As of this writing, ETH is trading around $2,917.

Medium-Term Outlook and Strategy

A corrective bounce remains possible in the short term; however, the medium-term outlook continues to be bearish. Traders should closely monitor the $3,150–$3,250 zone, which encompasses the Fibonacci 0.5–0.382 retracement levels and the previous swing high. A rejection from this area presents a high-probability opportunity to enter short positions.

Staggered take-profit targets are set at $2,630, $2,550, $2,350, and $2,150. A stop-loss should be placed above $3,420.

Reference Levels for ETH

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  Direction: Short
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  Entry: $3,150–$3,250
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  Take-Profit: $2,630 / $2,550 / $2,350 / $2,150
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  Stop-Loss: Greater than $3,420