Despite Nvidia’s recent report impacting the market, Bitcoin’s price has not witnessed a strong rally. Although it has seen some recovery from recent lows, the prospect of a December interest rate cut seems unlikely, keeping Bitcoin hovering just below the pivotal $92,000 level. What makes this phase of the cryptocurrency market distinct from its past cycles?
Understanding the Unique Cycle
Prominent industry voices, such as Ki Young Ju, emphasize the striking differences in this cryptocurrency cycle compared to previous periods. The data itself provides evidence to these claims. Earlier this year, several indicators hinted at an end to the bull market, yet reliance on historical patterns led to miscalculations by some experts.
Highlighting the distinctiveness, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, summarized this cycle with three observations:
- •In 2018, large holders were selling with no new money entering the market.
- •In 2022, a similar pattern emerged with large players selling and new capital still absent.
- •By 2025, while large holders continue selling, new investments are flowing in.
Why Sell If the End Isn’t Here?
One participant inquired why these significant players think they’ve hit the top, opting to sell. If the cycle hasn’t reached its conclusion, why exit? Are the internal discussions among the top 30 Bitcoin holders hinting at deeper structural questions? Ki Young Ju responded by noting the unpredictability in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency motivations, coupled with losses by some funds during past major sell-offs potentially forcing them to offload Bitcoin.
“It’s safer to presume there’s no specific reason for whales to profit, especially with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Early Bitcoin investors weren’t just tech enthusiasts but also included criminals. I suspect some funds, which held futures for arbitrage, suffered during a big liquidation, prompting Bitcoin sales.”
Echoing these thoughts, Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s Research Chief, pointed out how unmet expectations have led many to declare the end of the ‘4-year cycle.’ He emphasized that these cycles are about demand waves and not straightforward price or duration markers.
“The ‘4-year cycle’ doesn’t revolve around price actions or time spans. It’s about phases of demand and adoption—a cycle surfaces as demand rises and falls.”
Economic Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Market
One pressing concern for the crypto market is the probable stagnation in interest rates come December. This scenario, primarily spurred by lags in employment data, suggests the Federal Reserve might maintain current rates in its December meeting given the absence of critical labor reports.
Several key points underpinning this expectation include:
- •The lack of an October employment report from the BLS.
- •The November employment report scheduled for mid-December, post-Fed decision.
- •The missing September JOLTS data, with October figures due only by early December.
Faced with these delays, the Fed could adjust its approach using alternative job market data. However, any decision under such conditions would be unexpected. This combination of factors sets the stage for Bitcoin’s distinct market journey as it unfolds this cycle.