Bitcoin's recent decline below the $100,000 mark has stirred unease among enthusiasts. However, a vital metric analyzing the long-standing relationship between gold and Bitcoin is hinting at an emerging low. By mid-November, the BTC/XAU ratio descended 10.45% over the week and slumped 4.8% below its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). This breach is a key indicator, historically marking major lows in Bitcoin’s cycle over the past ten years.
Potential Pullback Levels
Historically, since 2015, the ratio falling beneath the 200-week EMA has consistently marked significant Bitcoin price lows. November 2025 marked the fifth occurrence of this event. In the past, once the ratio stayed under the EMA, Bitcoin hit rock bottom only to later surge exponentially, as seen during the 2017 peak. If history repeats, Bitcoin could be entering a 4 to 12-week consolidation phase.
Institutional Demand and Market Trends
The weekly chart presents another important test for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency recently dropped below its 50-week EMA, indicating a potential slide to $83,724, a strong support level last seen in the 2024 rally. A successive drop below the 50-week EMA this week could sustain selling pressures, dragging prices into the mid-$80,000s.
While bearish trends loom, bullish sentiments persist. Historically, BTC saw short-lived dips beneath the 50-week EMA in 2024 and 2025, which were followed by robust recoveries. This historical pattern may recur, reinforcing Bitcoin’s short-term bullish prospects if prices rebound above the 20-week EMA.
In parallel, institutional market dynamics are shifting. Interest in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs appears to be waning, as evidenced by slower inflows, particularly in BlackRock and Fidelity funds. Despite this, there aren’t significant investor withdrawals, hinting at a maintained interest within the institutional circuit. Experts indicate that a Bitcoin revival might materialize in the early months of 2026, should ETF inflows resonate with the BTC/XAU signal.
Market Outlook and Participant Insights
The blend of technical analysis and the gold correlation suggests the current Bitcoin dip might merely signify a routine market cycle correction. Yet, with Bitcoin trading below the 50-week EMA, volatility is likely to persist in the near term. Encouraged by historical benchmarks, many observers perceive this dip as a potential bottoming phase rather than a cause for alarm.
“This market shake-up may be an opportunity for strategic entry, especially for those guided by historical insights,” a market participant noted.
Such observations and strategies offer valuable insights into Bitcoin’s intricate dance between historical patterns and current market behaviors, presenting both challenges and opportunities for the knowing participant.