Renowned science writer Shanaka Anslem Perera has observed a significant deviation in Bitcoin’s traditional cycle through his X account, challenging long-held beliefs about its price dynamics. He asserts that despite this anomaly, Bitcoin remains in a bullish phase.
What Has Changed in Bitcoin’s Historical Trajectory?
Bitcoin’s price trends have traditionally followed a four-year cycle marked by block reward halving, typically sparking bull markets followed by significant corrections. Yet, by 2025, this predictable pattern has been destabilized. On October 6, Bitcoin soared to a peak of $126,270 before a 21% correction ensued, causing some to fear an 84% drop, as seen in past cycles.
How Are Experts Interpreting the Current Market Signals?
Perera challenges the notion of a coming crash, indicating that classic blockchain indicators like the Pi Cycle, MVRV Z-Score, and Puell Multiple, traditionally reliable at pinpointing market tops, remain inactive. This inactivity signals a market in “interim consolidation,” implying that the cycle’s completion is not yet in sight. Perera suggests that Bitcoin’s growth trajectory is now expanding over a longer timeline.
In this evolving landscape, Perera identifies spot ETFs as pivotal. With institutional titans such as BlackRock and Fidelity injecting over $64 billion into Bitcoin, the influx of capital has tempered the price fluctuations typically caused by retail investor behaviors.
“It is now evident that Bitcoin’s price is more influenced by settlement dynamics than investor sentiment,” Perera remarked.
Recent ETF activities underscore this shift. Data from SoSoValue revealed a total outflow of $186.5 million from Bitcoin ETFs by November 4, which ballooned to $660 million within days. However, this shifted on November 7, as $240 million returned to ETFs, pushing Bitcoin’s price up by 2.38%, settling at $101,997.
Key observations underscore the new market era:
- •Institutional investments stabilize Bitcoin’s price.
- •Traditional price prediction models are losing relevance.
- •Market movements are increasingly driven by strategic capital allocations.
These developments point to a transformative phase for Bitcoin, as institutional interest forms a new order, challenging the previously established cyclical price pattern and offering a glimpse into a potentially stable future for the cryptocurrency.