Key Takeaways
- •Bitwise argues Bitcoin should already be near $270,000 based on global liquidity metrics.
- •Massive fiscal programs and policy shifts have pushed global money supply to new records.
- •Ethereum’s treasury-driven demand has collapsed, raising concerns about the survival of smaller DAT firms.
Instead of starting with price charts or ETF flows, the firm places global liquidity at the center of its analysis – and by that measure, Bitcoin is dramatically undervalued.
Bitwise points out that the last two years produced one of the most aggressive financial expansions in modern history. Governments pumped capital into their economies at an extraordinary pace: the United States issued close to $2 trillion in new Treasuries per year, debated direct cash payments, and is now winding down quantitative tightening; Japan triggered a $110 billion stimulus; China launched a $1.4 trillion program; Canada returned to quantitative easing; and more than 320 interest-rate cuts worldwide amplified the effect.
Those moves pushed global M2 to roughly $137 trillion – the highest on record. Bitwise’s liquidity model suggests Bitcoin has not kept pace with this surge. According to their estimate, BTC should be hovering around $270,000, placing its current trading range roughly 66% below its implied fair value. Gold, in comparison, sits at the opposite extreme, with Bitwise arguing it is inflated by about 75%.
Ethereum Faces a Different Kind of Pressure
While liquidity paints a bullish picture for Bitcoin, Ethereum’s situation looks more fragile. Bitwise highlights a steep collapse in demand from corporate treasury entities that had previously accumulated ETH as part of the “DAT” trend.
In November, these companies bought only 370,000 ETH – a dramatic fall from August’s peak of nearly 2 million. The drop isn’t simply a slowdown, Bitwise says, but a structural decline driven by shrinking mNAV levels and vanishing purchasing power among smaller firms. Many are now struggling to raise capital, leaving only a handful of large players active.
One of those survivors is Bitmine, led by Wall Street strategist Tom Lee. Bitmine has become the dominant buyer, holding more ETH than 68 other treasury companies combined. But concentration is rising for the wrong reasons: premiums are disappearing, deal activity is thinning, and weaker DAT firms are edging toward extinction.
According to the report, purchases still exceed Ethereum’s monthly supply of about 80,000 ETH, but the narrowing pool of active buyers signals that the DAT model is unraveling.