Renowned Bitcoin analyst PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, believes that despite recent market skepticism, Bitcoin has not yet reached its cycle peak, and the real breakout could still lie ahead.
Responding to claims that Bitcoin’s $126,000 high might have marked the cycle top, PlanB dismissed the idea that 2026 will automatically bring a bear market just because of the traditional four-year halving pattern.
“Three cycles are not enough to call it a reliable pattern,” he noted, emphasizing that while the halving historically triggers rallies, the S2F model doesn’t predict tops or bottoms, only the average price expected in a halving cycle.
According to his latest chart, Bitcoin’s realized price (gray line) and 200-week moving average (black line) remain close together, a sign that the market hasn’t entered a euphoric phase. In past bull runs, massive price surges came when the RSI (relative strength index) hit above 80 and the realized price sharply diverged upward, signals that have not yet appeared this cycle.
PlanB suggests two bullish possibilities: either a major leg up is still coming, or Bitcoin has entered a more stable, institutionally driven regime dominated by fund rebalancing and steady exposure mandates. In both cases, he argues, the absence of overheating means a full-scale bear market is unlikely without a preceding parabolic run — making the coming months potentially pivotal for Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.