Bitcoin’s rally to the $111,000 level is losing steam, as diminishing trading volumes and divergence signals in technical indicators suggest a potential slow down. Analyst IncomeSharks points out that the current market enthusiasm resembles the over-optimism seen in past peaks. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator has decreased from 1.83 million in July to 1.69 million, indicating reduced buying pressure despite price increases. Experts believe this scenario increases the likelihood of a short-term correction. If the critical support at $110,000 is breached, Bitcoin’s momentum may weaken. However, surpassing $115,000 could push the price into the $120,000-$125,000 range.
Similar Patterns in Market Behavior and New Data Insights
The OBV indicator is a crucial tool for measuring the volume strength behind price movements. The decline in OBV, despite Bitcoin’s rising price since July, signals a reduction in buyer enthusiasm. Historically, such discrepancies have often preceded corrections of 10-20%. According to IncomeSharks, the current scenario points to similar outcomes. Additionally, on-chain data reveals a decrease in trading volumes among large investors known as “whales.” Glassnode data highlights a slight increase in net inflows to exchanges, suggesting that investors are inclined towards profit-taking.
Moreover, the cautious statements made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week have contributed to a reduction in cryptocurrency market trading volumes. Although risk appetite momentarily revived after a US interest rate cut, investors turned to profit-booking. These developments have limited Bitcoin’s upward potential and similarly caused stagnation in the altcoin market. Ethereum is holding around $3,950, while BNB remains stable at the $1,120 level.
Short-term Risks and Potential Scenarios
Should Bitcoin fall below the $110,000 support, levels of $104,000 and $96,000 may come into play. This situation could especially trigger a chain of liquidations in the futures market. However, exceeding $115,000 could restore purchasing power to the market. For this to happen, trading volumes need to rise and OBV must start showing an upward trend again.
Bitcoin’s current outlook suggests that the upward trend has entered a brief pause period. The weakening OBV and declining trading volume signal the need for caution. Nevertheless, as the overall trend remains upward, corrections could present new buying opportunities. Experts emphasize that staying cautious during periods of excessive enthusiasm is a healthier long-term strategy.