Bitcoin is exhibiting early indicators of a potential trend reversal to the upside, driven by a confluence of significant factors. These include recent softer U.S. CPI data, a resurgence in spot ETF inflows, and a notable short squeeze.
Following a period of 57 days of consolidation, Bitcoin has successfully closed a daily candle above the critical resistance level of $95,000. On January 13th, Bitcoin experienced a rally of 4.6%, reaching a high of $96,250, a price point not observed since November 16th. At the time of this report, BTC has already seen an increase of +8.77% in 2026.
This price movement suggests the potential for a more substantial breakout for Bitcoin. However, maintaining the $95,000 level and successfully reclaiming certain overhead resistance areas would further solidify the bullish outlook. Spot trading volumes are also on the rise, reaching levels not seen since December 1st, indicating renewed market participation.
Additionally, a growing narrative surrounding fiat currency risks, policy uncertainty, and credibility is prompting a re-evaluation of real assets. This trend is evident in the rallying prices of commodities such as Gold and Silver. This broader economic backdrop is structurally supportive for Bitcoin, leading many analysts to view the current situation as a potential "catch-up trade" for BTC.
CPI Pressure Was Reduced
Yesterday's release of U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) numbers presented slightly cooler-than-expected readings. The CPI is a primary indicator for assessing U.S. inflation and plays a crucial role in monetary policy and interest rate decisions. This data reflects the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. Headline CPI captures overall inflation, including volatile components like food and energy, while core CPI excludes these categories to offer a clearer view of longer-term price pressures.
Headline CPI met expectations with a year-over-year increase of +2.7%, while core CPI registered at +2.6%, falling below projections. This indicates that inflation is not accelerating, though it has not been eliminated. Notably, core CPI has now reached its lowest levels since March 2021. Despite these softer readings, there remains a strong consensus that the U.S. will not implement interest rate cuts this month. The data primarily places the Federal Reserve in a "wait and watch" stance.
This development contributed to a bounce in Bitcoin's price, signaling that the possibility of a renewed tightening cycle may be diminishing and highlighting a trend of gradually easing inflation.
BTC Spot ETF Inflows Reached a Three-Month High
Following four consecutive days of outflows from U.S. BTC spot ETFs, demand has begun to turn positive once again. On January 13th, Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows totaling $753.73 million, with Fidelity's FBTC leading the surge with $351.36 million.
This represented the strongest single-day demand signal for institutional BTC exposure observed so far this year and marked an inflow level not seen since October 7th of the previous year.
Market Structure Appearing to Adjust
Bitcoin had largely traded within a range between $80,500 and $95,000 since November 16th. Yesterday marked the first daily close above the upper band of this key resistance. From a charting perspective, Bitcoin has broken out of an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish technical analysis formation, with significant volume. It is now anticipated that this level will be retested as support.
Looking at a longer-term outlook, two indicators are suggesting a potential bullish reversal. On the weekly timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is displaying a hidden bullish divergence, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates that selling pressure is clearly decelerating, with momentum shifting towards stabilization.
What Would Confirm the Shift
While momentum is undoubtedly building, categorically confirming this as a trend reversal would necessitate further validation across price structure, volume, and sustained demand.
In the short term, the psychological level of $100,000 remains a critical benchmark, which also aligns with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Slightly above this level, at $101,000, lies the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), a metric that has historically served as a significant long-term support and resistance indicator for Bitcoin.