Bitcoin’s fourth death cross is approaching, and market pundits are cautiously optimistic. Past experience indicates that all past crossovers were followed by significant bottoms in the cycle and speculation exists that the next one will be as well.
Bitcoin’s fourth death cross is approaching, with analyst Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) shared a chart setup as historical behavior points to cyclical reversals. Data from Glassnode’s “Bitcoin: Technical Pricing Models” chart shows a familiar structure forming, reminiscent of previous market bottoms.
The model follows the price movement of Bitcoin and its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and its 350-day SMA. This cross is a death cross, which takes place when the 200-day SMA passes to the lower end of the 350-day SMA. While often interpreted as bearish, Bitcoin’s past three crosses have each coincided with deep accumulation phases and subsequent recoveries.
Every red-circled point in the Glassnode chart, such as in mid-2023, early 2024 and mid-2024, is a transitional market zone. The near-long-term price compression was an indication that the selling force was nearly exhausted before an increase in the price began. The current setup in late 2025 reflects similar compression behavior, suggesting structural support remains intact.
Technical Patterns Reinforce Structural Support Amid Market Consolidation
Bitcoin is as of writing trading at approximately $104213.53 and has experienced a slight dip in the last 24 hours by a margin of 0.98%. This notwithstanding, the asset has a strong market capitalization of 2 trillion dollars, which shows that it has a lot of investors. The 24-hour trading of 61.51 billion, a decrease of 12.29%, suggests that there is a moderation in the activity due to the sudden volatility.
The 200 day and 350 day SMAs also remain critical technical zones. In the past, whenever Bitcoin was near or fell below these averages, long-term users considered these as a time to accumulate them. This has been followed by recovery rises in growth. The trend shows that short term sentiment might be cautious, but there might be greater accumulation.
The price formation of Bitcoin is still stable around above the 350-day SMA meaning no wider momentum has been depreciated. The present consolidation period follows an earlier example of market rebalancing followed by significant market rallies. Each crossover historically redefined trend baselines rather than signaling sustained declines.
Mining Efficiency and Post-Halving Adjustments Shape Market Outlook
A further aspect of the changing Bitcoin ecosystem is market commentary by Crypto Andy. In his recent post, he remarked that mining dynamics have changed significantly since the 2025 halving. Miners are now optimizing for efficiency and predictable earnings instead of solely pursuing hashrate dominance.
New forms of payout, including FPPS (Full Pay-Per-Share) and PPLN (Pay-Per-Last-N-Shares) have become popular to offer predictable and steady payouts. This is a more mature and balanced mining industry, in which operational expenses and MEV (Miner Extractable Value) plans are at the centre of profits.
Since the supply in circulation is close to 19.94 million BTC, with a total of 21 million BTC in circulation, market valuation remains under scarcity. With long-term metrics maintaining structure and mining operations adapting to post-halving economics, Bitcoin’s broader setup appears primed for another phase of equilibrium. Traders continue to watch for confirmation that the fourth death cross will once again precede a bottom and eventual recovery.