In the cryptocurrency world, some events make a big splash, and the emotions surrounding them are even louder. Every time a death cross appears on the charts, the crypto market freezes. For some, it is a warning of an impending storm, while for others, it is just another piece of noise that does not change the long-term picture.
On 16 November 2025, Bitcoin formed another death cross — the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) fell below the 200-day SMA. The last time such a signal was recorded was in April of the same year, but then it came at an early stage of the correction. Today, the situation is different: the market has already cooled down, liquidity has become thinner, and investor sentiment has become more cautious.
But is this really the beginning of a trend reversal or just one of the phases of a larger cycle? We will find out in today's article.
What Is a Death Cross and Why Is Everyone Talking about It?
A Death Cross is a technical pattern in which the short-term trend falls below the long-term trend. In the case of Bitcoin, this refers to the 50-day MA crossing the 200-day MA from top to bottom. In charting terms, this means that short-term momentum has weakened, buyers have slowed down, and the market is losing some of its previous optimism.
Psychologically, this pattern is almost provocative: it is interpreted as a potential entry into a "bearish" mode. Historically, such crossovers have not always meant a further decline — but they have almost always been accompanied by increased volatility and a shift in sentiment.
Why Is the Current Death Cross Important?
This signal appears against the backdrop of changing market conditions. It indicates the following:
- •Weakening momentum: buyers who were aggressively pushing the price above $132,000 six months ago now appear less determined. The MA50 crossing below the MA200 reflects this cooling.
- •Decreased liquidity: withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs signal that large players are not willing to risk their funds. When liquidity thins while volatility remains elevated, even moderate selling can lead to outsized price moves, which makes the death cross more meaningful in the current environment.
- •High level of risk: regulatory uncertainty, macroeconomic turbulence and seasonal decline in interest make the market more sensitive. In such an atmosphere, the death cross amplifies not only technical factors but also emotions.
Three Possible Scenarios for the Trend
Today, the market is at a point where the same signal can be interpreted in different ways. No outcome is guaranteed, but several scenarios appear most likely.
Scenario A: Deeper Correction (Target — $74,000–$76,000)
The technical structure of the market suggests that Bitcoin may continue to pull back. Levels in the $74k-$76k range are already being considered by analysts as the next strong support. If the price gets there, the current death cross will not be the beginning of the decline — but its middle.
Scenario B: Bottom Formation and Subsequent Rebound
An interesting feature of the current market cycle (2023–2025) is that many death crosses formed when the market was already close to bottoming out. Not at the peak, but at the end of the decline. If history repeats itself, the signal may not be a warning of a further decline, but confirmation that the correction cycle is ending.
The factors for a reversal are the stabilisation of ETF flows and the return of buying activity near key support levels.
Scenario C: Prolonged Sideways Consolidation
Bitcoin likes to pause, especially after sharp impulses. In this scenario, the price will move in the $90,000–$100,000 range, forming a base for the next surge. Such a period may be protracted, but it creates the foundation for a new trend, as in the previous cycle before the rise to historic highs.
The death cross in Bitcoin has become a hot topic again, and for good reason. It reflects the reality of the market: cooling short-term interest, declining liquidity and a shift in sentiment. But to consider it a harbinger of collapse would be too simplistic an approach.
History shows that a death cross can mean a decline, it can mean the end of a correction — or it can simply signal a change in the market phase.
Right now, it is more of a marker of a transitional period than a death sentence. And, as always in crypto cycles, the main question is not what the indicator says — but how the market will respond to it.
One thing is certain: it won't be boring.