Bitcoin’s 13-Year Pattern of Deep Drawdowns Raises a Big Question: Is This Cycle Different?

Bitcoin has spent more than a decade moving through repeated boom-and-bust cycles, with each bear market carving out severe losses before the next uptrend begins.

According to on-chain analyst Ali, the average Bitcoin drawdown across 13 years of market history sits near 70%, forming a remarkably consistent pattern. His latest chart highlights these historic declines, and raises the pressing question: is this cycle set to repeat, or could Bitcoin break the pattern?

A Look at Bitcoin’s Historical Bear Market Declines

The chart shared by Ali shows several major Bitcoin downturns, each marked with precise percentage drops:

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  2011–2012: A crash of roughly –93%, one of the largest in Bitcoin’s early history.
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  2013–2015: A decline of about –86.7%, marking the next deep bear market.
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  2017–2018: A drawdown near –84.1%, demonstrating that the pattern of large retracements persisted even as Bitcoin matured.
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  2019–2020: The market saw a correction of around –72.2% from the cycle peak.
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  2021–2022: A drop of approximately –77.5%, aligning again with the long-term average near 70%.

These multi-year declines illustrate a clear trend: each Bitcoin cycle has experienced a large retracement, often exceeding 70%, before stabilizing and eventually resuming upward momentum.

Current Cycle: Testing the Historical Pattern

Ali’s chart shows Bitcoin trading around the $89,000–$90,000 zone, alongside a marked drawdown level for the current cycle of about –68.7% from the previous highs. That number rests almost exactly within Bitcoin’s historical bear-market range.

What stands out is how consistent these retracements have been:

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  Every major cycle retraced more than 70%.
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  Most of them fell between –70% and –86%.
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  Each significant new high was formed only after a deep reset phase.

With Bitcoin’s current drawdown sitting just under that long-term average, the chart visually forces the question: Are we witnessing the same pattern again, or could Bitcoin finally break the 13-year rule?

The Question Moving Forward

Ali doesn’t give a prediction; instead, he leaves readers with a simple but important question: Is this time different?

The chart highlights that the current retracement is already in line with past bear markets, yet Bitcoin continues to trade near upper levels of the cycle rather than entering the prolonged basing phase seen in earlier downturns.

For now, the visual data suggests this cycle still echoes the past. Whether Bitcoin ultimately diverges from its decade-long behavior remains to be seen, but the chart makes one thing clear: Bitcoin’s history has consistently repeated in rhythm, and the market is now at a tipping point where that rhythm could either continue or break.