Bitcoin (BTC) climbed toward $110,000 over the weekend but failed to achieve this milestone, despite a wave of optimistic news. This news included Donald Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” for Americans and signs of a potential U.S. government shutdown deal.
According to new research by XWIN Research Japan, a combination of macro pressures, selloffs from long-term holders, and weak sentiment has established a resistance zone between $107,000 and $118,000. This zone appears too strong for bullish headlines alone to overcome.
A Rally Meets Resistance
The recent price movement for Bitcoin began on November 9, when BTC surged from below $102,000 to nearly $104,000. This uptick coincided with a promise from President Trump to issue a $2,000 per-person tariff dividend to many Americans. This proposal evoked memories of the stimulus checks that preceded the significant crypto market expansion experienced in 2020-2021.
The optimistic sentiment continued into November 10, with prices pushing past $107,000 amidst hopes for a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown. However, the rally soon lost momentum, with prices retreating to the $105,000 level. XWIN Research identified several immediate headwinds facing the flagship cryptocurrency.
“First, macro pressure: although the Fed cut rates in October, Chair Powell warned another cut in December isn’t guaranteed. That dampened easing expectations and triggered selling across risk assets,” the report noted.
Furthermore, while the Trump administration appears to be supportive of the cryptocurrency industry, state-level regulatory crackdowns continue to create uncertainty and discourage institutional participation.
However, the most significant barrier identified by XWIN Research was on-chain selling activity from long-term holders (LTHs). The firm pinpointed the $107,000 to $118,000 range as a major resistance zone. They observed that LTHs have been increasing their exchange inflows to nearly double normal levels, creating a supply friction that absorbs buying pressure.
The LTH-SOPR metric, which tracks profit-taking by these long-term investors, has experienced a significant decline since July. It now sits near 1.6, which XWIN Research interpreted as indicating “reduced conviction among holders, selling into strength but with less profit margin.”
A Market at a Crossroads
While the immediate outlook suggests a struggle, certain market metrics indicate a potential inflection point is forming. On-chain analyst MorenoDV_ pointed out that a key liquidity pattern has reappeared.
According to their analysis, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has returned to its lower historical range. This zone has previously marked cycle bottoms in mid-2021 and throughout 2024. This suggests a growing pool of stablecoin “dry powder” available on the sidelines, which historically precedes significant market recoveries as this capital rotates into assets like Bitcoin.
Concurrently, the market is exhibiting classic signs of a liquidity-testing phase. Bitcoin’s short-term volatility has spiked above its 30-day average, a condition often observed before a major directional move.
This environment has led to divided opinions among analysts. Some, like Doctor Profit, maintain a cautious stance, warning that a breakdown below the key “Golden Line” support, which is near $99,200, is “only a matter of time” and could potentially erase bullish momentum.