Expert Cautions Market Calm May Precede Turbulence
Bitcoin's firm hold around $100,000 is no longer being celebrated as a victory. According to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone, the cryptocurrency’s stability amid historically calm markets signals “extreme complacency.” Both Bitcoin and traditional assets are showing minimal movement, a trend that often precedes significant volatility.
McGlone compared Bitcoin’s 50-week moving trendline with the Cboe Volatility Index and the S&P 500’s realized volatility. He noted that such quiet conditions rarely persist, warning that markets may be preparing for turbulence. The VIX’s 50-week average, currently near 19, indicates that equities might soon “catch up” to rising volatility levels.
Bitcoin Faces "Do or Die" Moment
Bitcoin has hovered around $100,000 after multiple failed attempts to rise above $110,000. McGlone described the situation as a “Do or Die” stage, meaning the asset must hold this level to prove resilience. A drop below it could trigger a decline toward its long-term support near $56,000.
Historically, each major Bitcoin cycle slows at this stage, as enthusiasm fades and prices revert toward their mean levels. The present calm across markets mirrors this pattern, suggesting a potential turning point for both equities and cryptocurrencies.
$100,000 Bitcoin Do or Die?
Waning Bitcoin despite extreme stock-market complacency may be a warning: S&P 500 realized volatility could catch up soon to the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) 50-week moving average around 19.
Full report on the Bloomberg terminal here:… pic.twitter.com/VbCwz6qqUW— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) November 7, 2025
Additionally, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 remains above 0.53, showing that it continues to follow traditional market trends. If equity markets experience renewed volatility, Bitcoin could mirror the move. This alignment raises questions about whether the $100,000 level will remain stable or give way under pressure.
McGlone cautioned that the ongoing stillness in global markets could mask deeper instability. He emphasized that calm periods often precede major corrections, with Bitcoin’s current position representing a key test of its strength.