Bitcoin Whales Offload, Volatility Hits Record Lows – Analysts Say Calm Could Precede a Massive 2026 Rally

According to new data from Glassnode and Bitbo, Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen to its lowest level in history. Concurrently, long-term “OG” whale wallets have been actively distributing holdings throughout 2025. Despite this wave of profit-taking, several analysts suggest the market’s quiet phase could be setting the stage for a powerful upside breakout in 2026.

Glassnode’s on-chain data highlights a surge in high-value transactions from early adopters, with several $100 million to $1 billion batches of BTC moving to exchanges over the past year. Historically, such whale activity has preceded market transitions, not long-term downtrends.

PlanC's Bold 2026 Bitcoin Forecast

Market analyst PlanC published his “5 Bold Predictions” for Bitcoin, suggesting the current lull is deceptive. His key forecast is that Bitcoin will never fall below $70,000 again and will likely reach $130,000–$150,000 by January 2026, eventually crossing $200,000 later that year.

He also warned that those who exited during this correction phase in late 2025 will “FOMO back in” once Bitcoin resumes its four-year cycle momentum. His post quickly went viral, reinforcing the growing sentiment that accumulation during low-volatility periods often leads to explosive rallies.

Volatility Collapse Could Signal Imminent Move

Bitbo’s Volatility Index shows Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility at just 1.99%, the lowest level ever recorded. Similar readings in past cycles, such as early 2020 and late 2016, preceded parabolic runs in both Bitcoin’s price and trading volume.

With whales rebalancing portfolios, retail sentiment muted, and volatility compressed to multi-year lows, many analysts believe the stage is set for a major directional move. Whether it breaks up or down, history suggests this calm won’t last much longer.