Key Market Indicators and Pressures
Deteriorating US-China relations, President Trump’s recent tariff expansion, and traders avoiding long leverage are adding pressure to Bitcoin’s downside. Data show Bitcoin’s (BTC) market structure aiming toward establishing balance from last week’s sharp correction. However, intensifying headwinds from President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff war with China and the record length of the US government shutdown serve as an overhang on bullish investors’ willingness to open new positions in futures markets.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, the Coinbase Premium Index, and the spot cumulative volume delta for professional and retail-sized investors at Coinbase have been steadily trending upward since Bitcoin sold off to $107,000 at the exchange on Oct. 10.
Futures Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior
As shown in the chart below, the volume delta, funding, and open interest dynamics of the Bitcoin markets have evolved since the Oct. 10 sell-off. US retail and institutional investors are clear accumulators of BTC, while Binance perpetual futures traders have been aggressively selling.
Comparing Binance spot versus its futures volumes, the spot delta is positive, whereas the negative perps delta highlights rising short-positions, confirming the view that perps-driven selling is reinforcing the downtrend, while spot buyers’ demand provides strength at $107,000 to $108,000.
An alternate view of this expression is shown below.
Short-Term Price Action and Liquidation Levels
Considering Bitcoin’s potential price action in the short-term, the liquidation heatmap outlook infers that momentum traders might chase liquidation clusters for longs at $106,300 to $104,000 and short positions are at risk of closure at $115,000.
Analyst Outlook and Upcoming Macroeconomic Events
While prices are expected to stay rocky in the short term, Lekker Capital chief investment officer Quinn Thompson said that the liquidation cleared more leverage in dollar terms and percentage of open interest than the entire January-April 2025 period. He added that the opportunity ahead is similar to pre-Trump victory 2024.
The 10/10 liquidation cleared more leverage in $ and % of OI than the entire Jan-Apr ‘25 period. Opportunity ahead is similar to pre-Trump victory ‘24.
Following in the same vein, macroeconomics-focused account ‘Tom Capital’ reminded traders to “just trade the price action” as the next week is expected to provide plenty of actionable events.
Over the next week, you'll likely have to navigate these narratives:
— Tom Capital (@Tom__Capital) October 21, 2025
- US CPI release
- Potential US government reopening
- Fed rate cut (future cuts)
- Nikkei topping at 50,000
- Gold topping
- TACO or no TACO (Trump's self-imposed 100% tariffs on China, etc.)
Or you could…