According to new data analyzed by CryptoQuant and shared by Arab Chain, Bitcoin appears to have entered a volatile rebalancing phase following its strong October rally. Despite rising turbulence, the world’s largest cryptocurrency continues to hold above $109,000, signaling that long-term confidence remains intact even as short-term traders reposition. The Binance BTC Log Return Distribution Index, which measures volatility and trader sentiment across spot markets, shows that Bitcoin’s mean return has turned slightly negative at -0.000947, an early sign that upward momentum is cooling after several consecutive weeks of gains. At the same time, the standard deviation has increased to 0.0119, reflecting a spike in short-term price swings.
Rising Volatility and Short-Term Pressure
The report highlights a sharply negative skewness of -7.53, meaning the return distribution has tilted toward negative outcomes. This typically points to increased selling by short-term traders or algorithmic bots reacting to quick intraday shifts.
Meanwhile, a kurtosis reading of 3.04 signals a concentration of extreme price moves, both gains and losses, within a narrow time frame. Analysts interpret this as a sign of heightened volatility, often seen during transitional phases when markets consolidate after extended rallies. CryptoQuant analysts described this pattern as a “rebalancing” period, suggesting that investors are engaging in profit-taking without undermining the broader bullish trend. The data shows that buyers are still defending the $105,000 support zone, with liquidity remaining strong across major spot exchanges.
Market Context: Consolidation Above $109K
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is currently trading near $109,920, up 1.22% in the past seven days, with a total market capitalization of $2.19 trillion. Trading volume has cooled to around $62 billion over the past 24 hours, down 38%, reflecting a period of stabilization after recent highs.
Analysts note that while volatility has increased, the current conditions do not yet signal a structural reversal. Instead, the market appears to be digesting profits from Bitcoin’s powerful rally above $100,000, which occurred earlier this month.
What Comes Next
The next two weeks are expected to be crucial for determining Bitcoin’s short-term direction. If the price maintains its footing above $105,000, analysts anticipate the market could enter a new stabilization phase, allowing momentum to rebuild before another potential leg upward.
However, a sustained drop below that level could trigger a broader correction, especially given the increased sensitivity among short-term holders.
As CryptoQuant summarized, Bitcoin’s on-chain structure remains fundamentally sound, but “rising volatility introduces a fresh test for market conviction.”
For now, the data points to a market in transition, balancing between cautious profit-taking and the underlying optimism that has defined 2025’s bull cycle so far.