Bitcoin jumped above $106,000 this Monday, November 10. This rebound was fueled by a series of macroeconomic signals that are being deemed favorable. After a consolidation phase, the leading cryptocurrency is now benefiting from a new context that is awakening speculative appetites.
In Brief
- •The Federal Reserve has ended its monetary tightening, which is relaunching liquidity favorable to bitcoin.
- •The potential unlocking of the Treasury General Account (TGA) after the shutdown could inject billions into the banking system.
The Main Driver of Bitcoin’s Rebound: The Fed
The United States Federal Reserve has announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT). Effective December 1, the Fed will cease reducing its balance sheet and will resume reinvesting in matured Treasury bonds. John Williams, president of the New York Fed, has even mentioned the possibility of new asset purchases with the goal of ensuring money market stability.
Historically, periods of Fed balance sheet expansion have coincided with a bitcoin appreciation, as it captures a portion of this abundant liquidity. This link between monetary easing and digital assets remains one of the most closely watched indicators by crypto investors.
Another Catalyst: The Prospect of a Political Crisis Resolution in Washington
The government "shutdown" could end between November 12 and 15, according to prediction markets. This resolution would lead to the unlocking of the Treasury General Account (TGA), automatically injecting billions into commercial banks. Once again, bitcoin is expected to benefit from this increase in reserves.
Added to this are rumors of budget stimulus. Donald Trump has mentioned a new program of $2000 checks, and the housing regulatory authority is considering 50-year loans aimed at reducing monthly payments. These proposals, even if theoretical, are fueling market optimism about a massive return of easy liquidity.
A Window of Opportunity for Bitcoin Bulls?
Despite this momentum, technical indicators suggest a still cautious market. The Fear & Greed index, for instance, remains in the extreme fear territory. The Put/Call ratio, however, leans on the bullish side.
The key threshold for traders is the 200-day moving average, which bitcoin must surpass to confirm a genuine reversal.
If the political announcements materialize, the market climate could change very quickly. In the meantime, investors will need to closely monitor the dollar curve, long rates, and the Fed calendar.
In any case, bitcoin is more than ever establishing itself as the thermometer of monetary tensions and hopes. This is a developing story that warrants close attention…