Analyst Merlijn The Trader noted that “Bitcoin history is whispering again,” pointing to a repeating signal cluster that previously triggered a 500% rally in 2020. According to his chart, the same accumulation indicators have now reappeared, aligning with heightened fear in the market, a sentiment he says mirrors the conditions preceding Bitcoin’s last explosive breakout.
“The fear is identical. The outcome? We’ll let the chart speak,” he wrote, suggesting that Bitcoin could be on the verge of another large-scale move once sentiment resets.
Market Experts See Cycle Divergence, Not a Typical Top
Fellow analyst Ted argued that this market cycle is “different from the last three.” He highlighted that Bitcoin reached a new all-time high before the halving, a first in its history, and has since consolidated above $100,000 for nearly six months, a pattern inconsistent with traditional blow-off tops.
Ted added that while a correction remains possible, a 60–70% crash appears unlikely, given the sustained institutional demand and stable uptrend structure.
Volatility Near Historic Lows – A Catalyst Awaits
Complementing these views, Darkfost shared a chart showing Bitcoin’s 180-day volatility at its lowest level on record, driven by liquidity expansion and market maturity. However, he cautioned that such compression phases often precede violent price expansions.
“The current structure suggests that a sudden return of volatility is likely in the short term,” Darkfost wrote, noting that a single catalyst, whether macroeconomic or on-chain, could ignite rapid upside movement.
Outlook
As analysts converge on the idea of cyclical divergence, the consensus is forming around one theme: Bitcoin’s next decisive move is building beneath a calm surface. If historical signals hold true, the compression phase may soon give way to another high-momentum leg in the ongoing cycle.