In brief
- •Citibank forecasts $181,000 for a bitcoin within 12 months.
- •JPMorgan estimates that bitcoin is undervalued compared to gold and should already be at $165,000.
- •Trading volumes on spot markets and ETFs have exploded over the past year.
Citibank Remains Bullish
The hostility of banks caught off guard by bitcoin is far behind us. Everything changed in the United States since the Republicans returned to office.
Giant Citibank indicated in an internal research note published on October 2 that bitcoin could reach $133,000 before the end of the year. The document also presents three scenarios for the next 12 months.
The base scenario forecasts $181,000 for a bitcoin. The optimistic prediction is $231,000 while the pessimistic one is $82,000.
Citi’s base scenario assumes net inflows of $7.5 billion into ETFs by the end of the year. This would represent a 12% increase over the $60 billion already absorbed by Bitcoin ETFs since January 2024. Stock markets would also have to remain bullish.
Citi also highlights the favorable position of the Trump administration, which should bring “more clarity”. Indeed, a vote on the “Clarity Act” is expected before the end of the year. Don’t miss our article on this topic: Bitcoin: Toward a Historic Year-End?
The American bank describes 2025 as an excellent vintage given the 100% increase in market capitalization. Bitcoin now weighs more than $3.2 trillion, compared to $1.65 trillion before the launch of ETFs. That’s more than Amazon, Meta, or Tesla.
As for risk, Citi estimates that a 5% portfolio allocation requires “double-digit” returns (21% according to the recent risk/reward report) to justify the volatility. That’s good since bitcoin is up nearly 100% year over year…
JPMorgan Acknowledges Reality
The largest American bank suggests that bitcoin is undervalued and could reach $165,000 before the end of the year.
The strategy favoring gold and Bitcoin now has a name at JPMorgan: “The Debasement Trade“. That is, a bet on the depreciation of national currencies. Explanation from the bank internally:
[It is an investment that] reflects a combination of factors, which in our client conversations range from elevated geopolitical and policy uncertainty, to uncertainty about the longer-term inflation backdrop, to concerns about ‘debt debasement’ due to persistently high government deficits across major economies, to concerns about Fed independence, to waning confidence in fiat currencies in certain emerging markets in particular, and to a broader diversification away from the US dollar.
JP Morgan
Obviously, geopolitical uncertainty is linked to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine. The spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, for example, spoke of a Third World War if information relayed by Hungarian media regarding Kiev’s plans to carry out a False Flag in Romania and Poland were confirmed.
Ms. Zakharova relayed on her Telegram channel the possibility of sabotage acts in Romania as well as in Poland to make Russia bear the blame.
“Bankova is preparing its ‘Gleiwitz incident’ in order to create a Casus belli for a war between Russia and NATO.” she said.
“If all this is confirmed, then we must admit: never in modern times has Europe been so close to the beginning of the Third World War”
Volumes Don’t Lie
Bitcoin trading volumes skyrocketed in 2025 thanks to the arrival of institutional investors, regulatory clarification (ETF authorization), and inflation. All ETFs already hold 6.7% of circulating BTC, or $156 billion.
Spot market volumes have exploded. US ETFs trade about $7 billion daily. Up 200% year over year.
Daily volume on platforms like Coinbase or Binance reaches $70 billion per day, an overall increase of 130% compared to last year.
This is in addition to the $22 billion exchanged directly on the Bitcoin network (+80% y/y). Approximately 500,000 transactions per day.
Things are clearing up on the side of European commercial banks. Spain’s second-largest bank (900 billion $ assets under management, 70 million clients), BBVA, has just integrated bitcoin trading directly into its mobile app.
Even Russia is getting in sync. Currently, bitcoin purchases are reserved for “qualified” investors. But maybe not for long since the Moscow stock exchange has publicly called on regulators to lift this constraint to offer this possibility to individuals.
This proposal fits into Russia’s broader strategy to develop alternative payment systems to offset its disconnection from the global SWIFT network.
Let us finish by noting that Donald Trump wants to distribute checks to the population again. The funds will come from customs duties. Those who placed the very first “stimulus check” of $1,200 into bitcoin today own $22,400 (+1770%)…
Don’t miss our article: What About China if the United States Embrace Bitcoin?