Bitcoin experienced a decline, testing a critical support zone in anticipation of a significant options expiry event. The cryptocurrency saw a rebound of nearly 10% from its weekly low point, which was near $84,000. Traders are now closely monitoring the $91,000 and $93,200 levels to gauge the next potential price movement. Data from Deribit indicates that over 36,000 BTC options, representing a notional value of approximately $3.5 billion, are set to expire on December 5th. The put-call ratio for this specific expiry is hovering around 0.92, suggesting a relatively balanced interest between put and call options.
Bitcoin Expiry Focus: $91K Max Pain, $93.2K Breakout Potential
Further analysis of the data reveals a 24-hour put-call ratio of approximately 0.76, with call volume exceeding put volume within that timeframe. The combined metrics suggest a lack of a strong, unidirectional bet among traders, with hedging demand present but not overwhelmingly dominant.
The maximum pain price for this expiry is identified at $91,000, which is below the current spot price of Bitcoin, trading near $92,261. This configuration could potentially exert increased pressure around the $91,000 mark as the settlement date approaches. It is common for traders to adjust their strike prices and delta positions as the expiry time nears.
Bitcoin continues to exhibit a descending pattern on its one-month chart, a trend linked to its movement from November highs. This pattern is further supported by a significant sell-off observed last month, indicating that the corrective phase has extended with lower highs consistently holding.
A decisive breach below the $91,000 level could redirect market attention towards the $90,000 to $90,500 range, which represents the next significant support zone. Conversely, if the price manages to hold above $91,000, the market is likely to remain within its current consolidation area. An upside trigger for a potential bullish move has been identified at the $93,200 level.
A sustained move above $93,200 would signify a break in the recent lower-high pattern and would weaken the near-term bearish structure. This level is considered a confirmation point for bullish sentiment. Until such a move occurs, the prevailing pattern is expected to remain in effect.
In related news, reports indicate that Bitcoin miners have increased their reserves by approximately $220 million over an 11-day period. This accumulation by miners suggests a reduction in the amount of newly mined Bitcoin being sold into the market, as they are choosing to hold onto their assets.
BTC Supply Stress Meets Divergent Market Forecasts
On-chain analysis from Glassnode highlights a supply-side condition influenced by recent price declines. The firm noted that since mid-November, a significant portion of Bitcoin supply has fallen below the 0.75 quantile, indicating that over 25% of all Bitcoin held are now "underwater," meaning they are held at a loss relative to the current spot price.
Glassnode described this zone as one of fragile balance, citing potential capitulation risks for major holders while also suggesting the possibility of seller exhaustion leading to a bottom. The analysis also links sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks to the $93,000 price area.
According to Glassnode, for market stability to improve, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the 0.75 quantile, which is currently around $95,800. Further recovery to the 0.85 quantile, near $106,200, is viewed as a milestone for sustained positive price action.
Crypto analyst Javon Marks presented a constructive outlook based on chart patterns. He observed that Bitcoin is maintaining a higher low, which, in his assessment, keeps the broader uptrend intact despite prevailing market volatility. Based on these technical signals, Marks projected a potential upward movement towards $126,230.
In contrast, analyst Michael van de Poppe outlined a potential downside risk. He suggested that a failure to hold current support levels could lead to Bitcoin dropping towards $85,000. Despite this potential short-term correction, he expressed optimism that the market may be nearing a bottom and anticipates another move towards an all-time high.
As the market approaches the options expiry, key support and resistance levels are clearly defined. Traders are focused on $91,000 as a level to hold and $93,200 as a potential breakout signal. Options positioning remains relatively balanced, as indicated by the put-call ratios. The direction of Bitcoin's price may ultimately depend on its ability to maintain its position above the maximum pain level.