Bitcoin continues to struggle below $93,000, and a rare shift inside the futures market is adding new pressure. As of November 17, the futures-to-spot basis flipped negative, marking the first bearish reading of its kind since March 2025. This change is subtle on the surface, but historically significant.
Key Takeaway: Futures Traders Are Pricing Bitcoin Lower Than the Spot Market
Data from major derivatives platforms shows the BTC basis falling to -0.008%, with the 7-day moving average now at -0.004%. For most of 2024 and 2025, Bitcoin futures consistently traded at a premium because leveraged traders were willing to pay more for future exposure.
Now the opposite is happening.
A negative basis indicates two things:
- •Traders are de-risking aggressively, removing the usual premium tied to leverage.
- •Short-term outlook has turned cautious, with futures traders expecting lower prices.
This shift is especially notable because it appears during a period of already elevated selling pressure. Bitcoin is down more than 12% this week, falling from above $105K to the $92K range.
Why the Negative Basis Matters
Every time the BTC basis has dipped into negative territory over the past two years, the market entered one of two phases:
- High-volatility selloffs (rapid downswings and liquidations)
- Extended sideways consolidation before a trend reversal
Both outcomes reflect a stressed futures market, where demand for leveraged long positions disappears.
The last negative reading in March 2025 preceded a turbulent multi-week trading period that eventually ended in a slow recovery, but only once the basis turned positive again.
What Traders Should Watch Next
A negative basis is not a final verdict, but it is a signal. The next major clue will be whether the futures market can rebuild confidence.
Indicators to monitor:
- •Return of a positive basis (0% to +0.5%) → suggests renewed appetite for leverage
- •Worsening negative basis → signals rising stress and possible volatility
- •Spot-market liquidity levels → thin books amplify downside moves
- •Funding rates across perpetual futures → deeply negative funding could spark short squeezes
At the moment, none of these recovery signals have appeared.
Bitcoin remains trapped below $93K, futures traders are defensive, and the basis continues to hover around negative territory, a combination that historically aligns with uncertain short-term price action.