Bitcoin fell to around $101,000 on Tuesday, down 8% for the week, following a broad decline in risk assets led by the Nasdaq 100 futures, which lost 1.67%. Data show that when the Nasdaq drops more than 1.5% in a single day, Bitcoin posts a negative return 75% of the time, averaging a 2.4% fall. Despite the correlation, analysts say the move lacks a clear fundamental driver. “Bitcoin has been underpriced relative to the macro backdrop,” Ecoinometrics wrote, noting that financial conditions remain loose and equity markets have recently reached record highs. The report suggested that the decline is more a function of sentiment than macro stress.
Investor Takeaway
Bitcoin’s decline tracks risk markets but doesn’t reflect deteriorating fundamentals. Sentiment, not structure, remains the main headwind.
ETF Flows Show Cooling but Still Positive Demand
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen inflows slow sharply since early October. The first two weeks of the quarter brought in more than $5 billion in net inflows, while the past four weeks recorded roughly $1.5 billion in outflows. Despite that reversal, total net flows remain positive, suggesting investors are trimming exposure rather than exiting the market. Across global crypto ETPs, last week saw $246.6 million in net outflows, led by Bitcoin products. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded $403 million in redemptions, while Grayscale’s GBTC saw $68 million leave. Analysts said the shift points to profit-taking after a strong first half rather than structural weakness in the ETF market. “ETF demand has moderated, but the balance of flows remains healthy,” one fund manager said. “The fact that we’re still net positive suggests long-term investors are holding steady even through volatility.”
Onchain Data Signals Accumulation, Not Capitulation
Blockchain metrics indicate that selling pressure has eased. According to CryptoQuant, weekly sell-side volume fell from $835 million to $469 million, while exchange reserves dropped to 2.85 million BTC—a sign that coins continue to move off exchanges and into long-term storage. Whales sent roughly 4,900 BTC to exchanges last week, signaling cautious repositioning but not panic. Bitcoin continues to trade below its 200-day moving average of $108,000 and its short-term holder cost basis of $113,000, metrics often viewed as key resistance levels. Analysts say that while the correction could extend, the broader accumulation pattern remains intact, driven by long-term holders who continue to absorb supply.
Investor Takeaway
Exchange reserves are near yearly lows, showing that large holders are still accumulating. Market weakness appears tactical rather than structural.
Liquidity Data Points to a Possible Rebound
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR)—a measure of stablecoin liquidity relative to Bitcoin’s market cap—has declined to the 13–14 range, the same zone seen before Bitcoin’s rebound earlier this year. Historically, a lower SSR indicates growing stablecoin balances on exchanges, implying more sidelined liquidity ready to enter the market. At current levels near $102,200, the liquidity backdrop suggests that the market may be setting up for a relief rally or a final upward leg in the current cycle. Still, analysts caution that each subsequent SSR recovery has been weaker, reflecting waning momentum and tighter overall liquidity conditions across risk assets. “We’re seeing pockets of demand rebuild,” said one trader. “But the reaction is muted compared with past cycles, showing investors are cautious about reentering until macro conditions stabilize.” For now, the data imply that Bitcoin’s recent drop mirrors broader equity weakness rather than a change in fundamentals. As ETF inflows stay net positive and onchain metrics remain constructive, market observers expect Bitcoin to stabilize once risk sentiment improves.