Bitcoin is on track to close November with its most significant monthly loss since at least 2019. However, analysts suggest this downturn could set the cryptocurrency up for a strong beginning to 2026, as some investors may re-enter the market.
Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG, told Cointelegraph that while November has been a difficult month for the crypto market, the current capitulation signals an opportune moment for discerning investors to begin buying back in. He stated that overleveraged participants and unsustainable projects have largely been eliminated, creating an environment conducive for new long-term holders to gradually accumulate positions ahead of a promising new year.
“Overleveraged participants and unsustainable projects have been largely cleared out, which gives way for new long-term holders to scale in ahead of a promising new year.”
As of late November, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a decline of nearly 16.9% for the month, trading around $91,500. This performance nears the losses experienced in November 2019, when Bitcoin depreciated by almost 17.3% over the month, according to data from CoinGlass.
The cryptocurrency's worst November on record occurred in 2018, during which Bitcoin plummeted 36.5% amidst a severe bear market following the 2017 peak. Most recently, Bitcoin finished the month of November down in 2022, experiencing a 16.2% reduction.
Long-Term Bitcoin Bullishness Persists
Crypto educator Sumit Kapoor noted that November is typically one of Bitcoin's strongest months. However, with only a few days remaining in the month and a slow Thanksgiving weekend anticipated, he stated that Bitcoin is on course for its worst November since 2018.
“Every time Bitcoin has had a red November, December has also ended red.”
Justin d’Anethan, head of research at private markets advisory firm Arctic Digital, commented that most crypto-native investors are accustomed to a predictable four-year cycle. Historically, this cycle has led to rallies towards the end of the year, with October, November, and often December finishing in positive territory.
D’Anethan suggested that the cycle was accelerated this year by the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States in early 2024. He views this development positively, indicating a potential shift where "this time is different" as institutional investors have entered the market in a significant way, altering the pace, breadth, and timing of crypto price movements.
Monthly Candle Likely to Hold Above $93,000
Technical analysts are closely watching Bitcoin's monthly close, with a particular focus on the $93,000 level. They predict further downside if the cryptocurrency fails to maintain its momentum over the weekend.
Analyst "CrediBull Crypto" highlighted two key levels to monitor for the monthly close: $93,401 and $102,437. They indicated that a close above $93,000 would be a positive signal, which is likely to occur. A close above $102,000, however, would be exceptionally bullish, though they anticipate this may not happen until the following month.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $91,600, having remained relatively flat over the preceding 24 hours. It faced resistance just below the $92,000 mark on Thursday.