Bitcoin is down 2% so far this month, which doesn’t sound like much at first glance. However, it has only seen losses in two of the past Octobers since 2013. The first was in 2014 when it shed 13% and the second one came in 2018 when it lost 3.8%. Both were bear market years. August has historically been the worst month for Bitcoin, while October and February have been the best.
This is the third time in the last six years that BTC has been negative halfway through October, observed industry analyst Joe Consorti. All six times, it ended up green by October 31st, he said before adding, “There’s some hopium for you.”
This is the 3rd time that BTC has been negative halfway through October in the last 6 years.
All 6 times, it ended up green by October 31st.
There’s some hopium for you.
— Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti) October 15, 2025
Red October Deepens
BTC tanked to an intraday low of $110,500 on Wednesday before recovering to trade around the $111,000 on Thursday morning. The asset has now fallen 12% from its all-time high and is down 9% over the past seven days as October losses mount this week.
Chart expert “Bach” said that there were still no cautionary signals on the “Boombust framework,” which means “we haven’t reached that parabolic stage.” The last bullish signal came in April 2025 when markets started recovering from the big slump. “Still see $150,000 by year-end as a reasonable target,” he said.
Meanwhile, crypto litigator Joe Carlasare predicted that the cycle would extend into next year.
“This narrative about 4 4-year cycle/Q4/Uptober caused excessive long positioning, and the market almost never lets everyone win. Need to burn through that excess, frustrate the bulls, and then move higher throughout 2026.”
Analyst ‘Tracer’ also pointed out that previous bull markets have seen big dumps before things took off, suggesting that more pain was to come.
October 2017 = DUMP
October 2021 = DUMP
October 2025 = DUMPSame setup. Same structure. Same chart.
Don’t say I didn’t warn you…
— ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ (@DeFiTracer) October 15, 2025
Why The Pessimism?
Crypto trader ‘Mr. Anderson’ questioned why sentiment had turned bearish recently.
“You’ve got a three-year staircase up. You’ve got price up ~115% since last September, adding over $1 trillion in market cap. And the timeline still sounds like a funeral.”
Bitcoin has closed above $100,000 for over 160 straight days, he said before adding that it “sure looks like structural acceptance.” “Time will tell, but if higher levels are coming, this range is the launchpad,” he concluded.