Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin is trading in a zone where many active investors are sitting close to breakeven.
- •10x Research expects the current rebound to lose momentum quickly.
- •The firm exited its long positions near $111,545 and plans to buy back at lower levels.
Bitcoin has entered a tense stretch of the market — a phase where investors are getting impatient, profits have thinned out, and reactions are being driven more by nerves than strategy.
According to a new market report from 10x Research, Bitcoin’s current price range has pushed the average active investor close to their cost basis — historically the moment when disciplined trading begins to break down and volatility intensifies.
Instead of relying on speculative predictions, the analysis focuses on where actual capital has been deployed on-chain. One key metric — which reflects the cost basis of recently active Bitcoin holders — has just broken down after months of support. While this may fuel a temporary bounce, past cycles suggest the rally is likely to fade before Bitcoin can attempt new highs.
Why This Phase Matters
10x Research highlights what it calls the True Market Mean Price, an indicator built around the real cost basis of coins that have recently moved on-chain. Unlike broader metrics that include untouched long-term holdings, this one reflects the profit-and-loss status of current market participants.
The recent downturn in this metric shows that most active investors have now used up their profit cushion. Historically, this is when late buyers tend to double down — often right as risk is increasing — while more disciplined capital steps aside and waits for a cleaner entry point.
Strategic Levels to Watch
10x Research advised clients to close long positions near $111,545, banking roughly $23,000 per BTC before the market lost its margin of safety. Now that Bitcoin has dropped below levels where active investors remain comfortably profitable, the firm sees two key developments ahead:
- A brief rebound is likely, but upside momentum is expected to fade quickly.
- The next strong accumulation zone sits noticeably lower than current prices.
Still, the firm emphasizes that any deeper pullback shouldn’t be mistaken for the end of the bull market. Instead, it may open the door for long-term investors to reload at more favorable prices — essentially recycling profits gained earlier in the cycle.
What to Expect Next
10x Research says this is not the time to chase a sudden pump. Instead, traders should watch closely for where the rebound stalls, as that point often signals the beginning of the next meaningful buy zone.
For now, the firm’s stance is measured: stay active around the short-term bounce, but prepare to scale back in only once Bitcoin returns to what they define as strategic value territory.
The bottom line: Bitcoin’s broader uptrend is still intact — but the highly profitable stretch of the rally has paused. Smart money is watching the next dip far more closely than the next surge.