Market Analysis and Price Targets
Bitcoin risks falling to $72,000 within one to two months if it fails to hold the $100,000 level, according to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno. The on-chain analytics firm cited deteriorating demand conditions following Oct. 10's historic liquidation event that wiped out over $20 billion in leveraged positions.
The asset fell below $100,000 on Tuesday for the first time since June, trading around $101,409 at publication time. The decline represented a more than 5.2% loss over 24 hours. Other major cryptocurrencies also experienced significant selling pressure, with the GMCI 30 Index dropping over 9% in a single day.
Underlying Demand and Market Indicators
Moreno explained that spot demand for Bitcoin has been contracting steadily since the October liquidation event. U.S. investors have reduced exposure, as evidenced by negative ETF flows and a negative Coinbase price premium. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index stands at 20, firmly within bearish territory, indicating poor overall market conditions.
Expert Opinions and Previous Forecasts
Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research Geoffrey Kendrick previously stated that a slide below $100,000 seemed inevitable after the October liquidation. He later suggested Bitcoin might never fall below that threshold again if positive macro and geopolitical developments continued, particularly regarding U.S.-China trade talks.
The asset ultimately broke below $100,000, though outside of Kendrick's projected timeframe. Broader risk-off sentiment has weighed on crypto alongside stocks and commodities. Speculation that the Federal Open Market Committee may skip another rate cut this year contributed to market weakness.
Broader Economic Factors and Investor Behavior
Gerry O'Shea, head of global market insights at crypto asset manager Hashdex, pointed to concerns over tariffs, credit market conditions, and equity valuations. He noted that Bitcoin's recent trajectory has also been impacted by selling from long-term holders, an expected phenomenon as the asset matures and prices rise.
O'Shea emphasized that while $100,000 represents a psychologically important level, breaking below it doesn't undermine the long-term investment case. The trend for ETF flows and corporate adoption remains very strong as traditional financial institutions continue to build digital asset infrastructure and products.
Long-Term Outlook and Analyst Sentiment
Structural factors, including potential increased liquidity as the Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening, support the view that Bitcoin may hit new all-time highs in the coming months. Analysts remain divided on whether current weakness represents a buying opportunity or signals further consolidation ahead.