But while prices perked up, analysts warn that sentiment hasn’t — and that could hold back Bitcoin’s next major breakout.
Key Takeaways
- •Analysts say Bitcoin lacks the sentiment and catalysts needed for a January repeat rally.
- •BTC may spend December oscillating between $85K–$95K while liquidity stays thin.
- •A quiet Bitcoin could shift trader attention toward altcoins.
Instead of celebrating the rally as a signal of another parabolic January, several well-known market voices are stepping in with a reality check.
Conditions Aren’t the Same, Says 21Shares Co-Founder
Ophelia Snyder of ETF issuer 21Shares pushed back against expectations for a repeat of Bitcoin’s powerful start to the year.
She argued that while investors typically reshuffle portfolios in January, this time lacks the macro confidence and emotional fuel that underpinned 2025’s surge. The pressures weighing on the market — ranging from fading enthusiasm to unresolved volatility drivers — haven’t disappeared, she noted, meaning momentum traders may be hesitant to pile in.
Snyder’s message was simple: without a clear spark, Bitcoin shouldn’t expect last year’s fireworks.
Analysts Eye a Narrow Trading Channel Instead
Paul Howard of Wincent offered a similar tone but framed it more numerically. Speaking with CoinDesk, he projected that Bitcoin could spend December stuck between $85,000 and $95,000.
For Howard, there are two core issues: December liquidity tends to dry up, and the market lacks a narrative powerful enough to blast through resistance. He expects price action to drift rather than explode unless positioned catalysts arrive.
Sideways Bitcoin Could Be Altcoin Tailwind
Howard did see a silver lining — just not for Bitcoin. If BTC becomes dormant, traders often chase volatility elsewhere. That could push speculative capital toward altcoins, where lower liquidity frequently amplifies moves.
He also pointed to Japan’s central bank decision as a macro swing factor. If the Bank of Japan resists tightening, risk assets — including crypto, equities, and gold — might all catch a bounce as global appetite for risk ticks higher.
For now, though, the story isn’t euphoria — it’s fatigue. Bitcoin’s recovery looks more like stabilization than ignition, and analysts seem united that if fireworks are coming, they aren’t coming in January.