Resilient Recovery Following Losses
On Friday, Bitcoin’s value fell to $103,000 but rebounded on Saturday with an 8.5% gain, reaching the $111,000 mark. Although still 11% below the record high of $126,300 reached earlier in the week, technical indicators suggest potential continued recovery. This indicates a possible sustained upward trend, encouraging market optimism even amid recent volatility.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe emphasized the importance of BTC maintaining above its 20‑week moving average (20W MA). Sustaining above this level could signal the beginning of a new upward wave, similar to those faced during the COVID‑19 crash and the FTX crisis. According to the analyst, the target for the end of the year could be within the $140,000‑$150,000 range.
Opportunity Seen by ‘Shark’ Investors
Data from analytics platform Glassnode revealed that investors holding between 100 to 1,000 BTC, also known as “sharks”, seized the opportunity to buy aggressively following the liquidation. This group’s daily net position change reached 190,296 BTC, marking the highest level since September 2012.
Throughout 2025, these investors have recorded a significant increase in Bitcoin accumulation, indicating that experienced investors perceive opportunities rather than panic. As long‑term confidence remains intact, the continuation of this trend could lead Bitcoin into a new bull phase.
Is Volatility Diminishing: A Temporary Breath?
Technical analyst The Great Mattsby suggests that this recent decline does not signal the beginning of a long‑term bear market but rather a “mid‑cycle cooling.” The expert notes that in previous cycles, Bitcoin ended each bull market with the expansion of monthly Bollinger Bands. However, these bands are still contracting, indicating reduced volatility and the market not yet peaking. Historically, such “compression” phases often precede new rallies.
Additionally, Ethereum’s recovery from the $3,100 level suggests a gradual shift in overall market sentiment to a more positive outlook. Continuous ETF entries by institutional investors may further boost the market’s momentum. Bitcoin’s correction in 2025 has been more controlled than past instances, with technical indicators suggesting a potential long‑term bullish trend. Nevertheless, investors should remain cautious of the market’s remaining fragility, focusing on macroeconomic trends and long‑term technical indicators over short‑term price movements.