Market Movement and Technical Analysis
Bitcoin climbed to $104,011 in New York trading, recovering from a prior daily close of $101,468 as bargain hunters leaned into a short-term bounce. The move steadied nerves after a fast slide earlier in the week pushed the token beneath short-term averages and back toward the psychologically important $100,000 area. One-hour momentum has improved, but the daily trend remains fragile with price still tracking below longer moving averages.
Flow signals point to a normal-liquidity session rather than panic. Based on Coinbase spot data, estimated USD value traded today is about $0.97B, below the 90th-percentile $1.35B over the past 252 sessions—an environment that historically blunts both forced deleveraging and sharp V-shape rebounds. With volatility elevated but not extreme, bulls may require a clean reclaim of the $105,250–$105,500 band to galvanize trend followers.
Near-term resistance is stacked into $109K–$111K, an area defined by prior supply and moving-average congestion on 4-hour and daily charts. A decisive break there would shift the discussion from stabilization to trend repair. Failing that, traders will watch whether the market defends $99K–$101K, where demand has been most visible over recent weeks. Breaks below would refocus attention on the broader risk backdrop rather than microstructure.
Positioning and Tactical Setup
Positioning remains cautious. With macro momentum mixed—1H constructive, 4H and 1D still heavy—systematic players are more likely to scale rather than chase. The tactical setup favors measured participation above triggers, with tight risk controls while the daily structure rebuilds.
