Bitcoin Rally Stalls as Analysts Warn of Another Drop Before Recovery

Despite structural optimism about the long-term outlook, several key indicators suggest that a short-term pullback could be on the horizon before a renewed uptrend takes hold.

No Clear Catalyst to Sustain the Rally

In its latest market report, 10x Research highlighted that Bitcoin’s price action has entered a stagnation phase, driven by the absence of new catalysts capable of drawing in fresh demand. The firm emphasized that while the broader macro backdrop has improved slightly following the U.S. government reopening, the event itself offered little fundamental support to Bitcoin’s trajectory.

“The reopening provided a brief risk-on sentiment boost but has no lasting impact on the crypto market,” the report stated. “The real challenge remains the lack of a new marginal buyer.”

10x Research analysts noted that Bitcoin’s rebound was always likely to fade, given that macroeconomic conditions continue to weigh on liquidity and investor sentiment. The firm suggested that a retest of $100,000 is possible in the coming weeks — or even a temporary break below that threshold — as the market digests months of speculative excess.

A Shrinking Pool of Participants

The report also pointed to on-chain data showing a marked slowdown in the growth of new Bitcoin addresses. The one-year moving average for new address creation has flattened, implying that fewer new participants are entering the market. This dynamic underscores a broader pattern: the current price movement is largely supported by a shrinking pool of long-term holders and institutional players rather than broad retail inflows.

While these “diamond hands” investors have significant purchasing power, their limited activity is insufficient to sustain a steady uptrend without external catalysts such as new ETF inflows, monetary easing, or macroeconomic relief. “Bitcoin’s resilience is notable, but without a macro spark, momentum will continue to fade,” the report added.

Traders Brace for Another Test of Lows

Prominent trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe shared a similar view on X, suggesting that Bitcoin may revisit its recent lows before staging a recovery. “If I see this chart, then I would assume we’ll see another test of the lows on BTC before we’ll go back upwards,” he wrote. His comment came as Bitcoin traded near $104,700, with the market still unsettled by ongoing U.S. government shutdown uncertainties.

Van de Poppe’s chart indicates that Bitcoin has absorbed liquidity around the $102,000 area, but key resistance remains between $113,000 and $115,000 — levels that must be reclaimed for a convincing bullish reversal. The analyst implied that the current price structure resembles earlier mid-cycle corrections where the market retested support before breaking higher.

Consolidation Phase Before the Next Move

Both 10x Research and van de Poppe agree that Bitcoin’s long-term narrative remains intact. Institutional adoption, ETF-driven exposure, and increasing integration of Bitcoin into traditional financial instruments continue to provide structural support. However, near-term volatility is likely to persist until the market identifies a new macro catalyst.

Analysts warn that the next trigger could come from easing financial conditions, a resurgence in ETF flows, or fresh capital inflows from emerging markets. Until then, traders may need to brace for an extended consolidation phase marked by sharp but contained swings.

“The bigger picture remains bullish,” 10x Research concluded. “But before that phase can resume, we’ll likely see another washout that shakes out weak hands and resets the market’s risk appetite.”

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.