Bitcoin's price experienced a significant surge, reaching its highest point in over 60 days with a 5.5% gain on Wednesday. This upward movement followed substantial inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) totaling $840 million on Monday and Tuesday. With Bitcoin showing renewed strength, the question arises whether further gains toward the $105,000 mark are probable in the immediate future.
Bitcoin's recent rally towards $97,000 stands in contrast to the ongoing weakness observed in the Nasdaq Index. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has struggled to regain the 26,000 level, a price point last seen in early November 2025. Investor sentiment appears to be divided, as Bitcoin continues to trade 23% below its all-time high of $126,219. Concurrently, gold and silver prices have achieved record highs in 2026, indicating a stronger preference for traditional safe-haven assets.
Professional traders have not yet adopted a bullish stance, as evidenced by the BTC options delta skew metric. Put (sell) options continue to be priced at a premium. The BTC options delta skew remains at 4%, unchanged from the previous week, suggesting a stable perception of risk despite the rally above $96,000 on Wednesday. Traders exhibit skepticism regarding the sustainability of gains beyond the $100,000 level.
Bitcoin's Upside Capped by Increased Sociopolitical Concerns
Typically, an increase in optimism among whales and market makers leads to a negative skew, reflecting a higher demand for neutral-to-bullish option strategies. However, Bitcoin bears were caught by surprise, as the recent price advance triggered $370 million in liquidations of leveraged short (sell) positions over two days, marking the highest total since October 2025.
A contributing factor to this lack of optimism stems from heightened geopolitical tensions. Protests in Iran have led to military threats from US President Donald Trump, including the possibility of an additional 25% import tariff on countries conducting business with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Investors are concerned that this proposal could negatively impact US relations with China and India.
Investor confidence has also been affected by the Trump administration's expressed interest in acquiring control of Greenland. Trump has asserted that the self-governing territory of Denmark is crucial for US national security. Reports indicate that German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has offered support to Denmark in the event of a hostile takeover, as detailed by Politico.
Yields on the US 2-year Treasury decreased to 3.51% on Wednesday. This decline suggests that traders are willing to accept lower returns in exchange for the security offered by government-backed bonds. This trend is particularly noteworthy given that the latest US consumer price inflation index (CPI) registered at 2.7% year over year, exceeding the US Federal Reserve's target.
Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, has reportedly expressed concerns regarding the lack of clarity surrounding the future trajectory of artificial intelligence. Reflecting this cautious sentiment, Berkshire's cash reserves have climbed to a record $381.7 billion, a significant increase from $170 billion one year prior.
The Nasdaq Index saw a decline of 1.6%, while Oracle (ORCL US) shares experienced a 5% drop. This downturn followed a class-action lawsuit filed by bondholders alleging that the company failed to disclose the necessity of substantial additional debt to finance the expansion of its artificial intelligence infrastructure.
As uncertainty intensifies, traders have reduced their equity exposure. This indicates a decreased tolerance for risk, which consequently limits the appetite for cryptocurrencies.
It remains uncertain whether Bitcoin has definitively concluded its two-month bear market. However, derivatives data suggest that traders remain highly skeptical about the possibility of a rapid rally towards $105,000. For the present, investor attention is primarily focused on broader sociopolitical risks and the US Federal Reserve's ability to foster economic growth without reigniting inflation.