Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant rebound, climbing 14.50% from its recent lows of $80,600 and approaching the $93,000 mark. This price action has divided traders, who are uncertain whether this marks a "comeback" by the bulls or the beginning of a sustained bear market.
Some analysts are voicing strong bearish sentiments, suggesting that current and upcoming Bitcoin price rallies are primarily opportunities for selling rather than indicators of a renewed push toward ambitious year-end price targets, such as $150,000 and beyond. This perspective suggests that the current upward movement might be a deceptive "bull trap."
Bear Flag Pattern Suggests Potential 16% BTC Price Decline
A key argument supporting the notion of a Bitcoin bull trap stems from a classic technical pattern known as the "bear flag." This formation is typically observed during downtrends and often precedes another significant price leg lower.
Analysts have pointed to the bearish continuation pattern within Bitcoin's recent recovery, noting that the BTC price could easily fall back towards the $80,000 level. This observation is shared by several market watchers who have highlighted the pattern's implications.
A more detailed analysis of the bear flag pattern suggests a potential downside target for December around $77,100. This target is calculated by adding the height of the preceding downtrend to a potential breakdown point near the $88,000 support level.
This projected decline represents a drop of approximately 16% from current price levels.
Potential for a $40,000 Bitcoin Crash if 2021 Fractal Repeats
The current market structure for Bitcoin is being closely compared to the 2021 cycle, with some analysts observing an almost exact mirroring of patterns. This comparison raises concerns about a potential significant downturn.
One analyst shared a fractal analysis of Bitcoin that depicted a repeating double-top formation, followed by a sharp breakdown into cycle support, and then a deceptive rebound that ultimately formed a bull trap. This pattern was historically followed by a more substantial crash.
In the 2021 cycle, this bull trap preceded a prolonged decline that halved Bitcoin's value. The current 2025 fractal exhibits a nearly identical setup, with the price consolidating within a similar support band before an anticipated breakdown.
If this pattern continues to repeat, analysts warn that Bitcoin could revisit the $40,000 region in early 2026. Such a move would represent a drop of over 50% from current price levels.
Another analyst has highlighted the same downside target, pointing to Bitcoin's retreat from its multiyear ascending trendline resistance. Historically, such retreats have often resulted in significant drawdowns of around 70%.
Google Trends Indicate Renewed Fear in the Bitcoin Market
Data from Google Trends suggests a significant increase in searches for "Bitcoin bear market," reaching record highs on a five-year time frame. This surge in search interest indicates that the broader market sentiment is becoming increasingly fearful.
Historically, heightened public fear and searches for bear market conditions have often preceded significant selloffs in the BTC market. This pattern has been observed in previous market cycles.
For example, in May 2021, when Bitcoin was trading near $60,000, a surge in "bear market" searches was followed by a correction of over 50%. Similarly, in June 2022, around the $26,000 level, increased fear preceded Bitcoin's slide towards the cycle bottom of approximately $15,450.
A notable spike in "Bitcoin bear market" Google searches in August also coincided with a subsequent downturn in BTC's price.
Analysts warn that Bitcoin could potentially rally towards the $97,000 zone in the near future. However, they caution that this upward movement might be a trap designed to lure in unsuspecting bulls, ultimately leading to the confirmation of a bear market.
Everyone will think the bull run is back, but it isn’t and bear market starts.