Bitcoin Price Update: Calm Before the Storm as Markets Await CPI Data and Fed Move

Macroeconomic Pressure Mounts Before CPI and Fed Decisions

Markets are bracing for two critical catalysts – October’s CPI report, due on October 24, and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week. Together, these events could determine whether the recent cooling in inflation is enough to justify the rate cuts that investors have been anticipating for months.

Analyst Michael van de Poppe believes Bitcoin is nearing a breaking point after spending nearly six months consolidating between $100,000 and $120,000. He noted that a large, volatile move is now on the horizon. “It’s still chop until we’re getting macroeconomic data and the FED meeting,” he said. “That’s literally starting up later this quarter, and from that perspective, a big surge should be happening.”

According to van de Poppe, Bitcoin is not expensive at $110,000 when compared with its 2021 high near $69,000. “Back then, rates were at 0%. Now they’re 4 – 4.5%,” he explained. If interest rates begin to decline, he expects Bitcoin to rally sharply as liquidity returns to risk assets. The key resistance to watch, he says, is $112,000 – a level that could unlock the next leg toward $120,000 if broken convincingly.

Technical Picture: Compression Before Expansion

Technical charts reflect this sense of coiled tension. Bitcoin’s RSI currently sits near 43, signaling neutrality but suggesting room for upside momentum. The MACD indicator shows reduced downside pressure, while volume remains relatively muted – often a precursor to a large breakout.

Bitcoin recently tested support around $107,000, which analysts mark as an accumulation zone. The next resistance lies near $111,900, coinciding with the 50-day moving average (MA50). A daily close above this level could confirm renewed bullish momentum, while a drop below $107,000 might expose further downside toward $103,000 or even $100,700.

On-Chain Data Warns of Potential Risks

Despite optimism from traders, on-chain data paints a more complex picture. Analyst Ali noted that Bitcoin has dipped below the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price – a signal that historically precedes deeper pullbacks. “When Bitcoin breaks below the STH Realized Price, it tends to fall under the Long-Term Holder Realized Price too, now sitting at $37,000,” he warned.

While most analysts don’t foresee such an extreme drop, Ali’s observation highlights that structural risks remain. Should inflation surprise to the upside tomorrow or the Fed strike a hawkish tone next week, Bitcoin could temporarily lose momentum before resuming its long-term uptrend.

Gold Rejection Seen as Bullish for Bitcoin

Adding another layer to the analysis, trader Crypto Rover pointed out that gold has just been rejected from a 38-year resistance trendline. He argues that this pattern could mark a shift in capital flows from precious metals toward digital assets. “Gold is getting rejected from this 38-year resistance level. Bullish for Bitcoin and Crypto,” he wrote.

Rover also highlighted that Bitcoin remains comfortably above its 50-month moving average – a critical long-term support level that has historically aligned with early bull phases. “As long as Bitcoin stays above the MA50, it’s looking good,” he added.

Sentiment: Calm Before the Storm

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $109,665, showing a mild 1.2% daily gain. The seven-day performance remains negative at around – 1%, while monthly losses hover near – 4%. Daily trading volume has dropped 27% to $74.78 billion, though its market capitalization has edged back to $2.18 trillion, signaling that investors remain engaged despite low volatility.

The broader market tone is one of cautious optimism. Equity indices are steady, gold prices are retreating from recent highs, and U.S. bond yields have eased slightly – a combination that historically benefits Bitcoin. Should CPI data come in cooler than expected and the Fed hint at rate cuts, risk appetite could surge across the crypto space.

As Van de Poppe summarized, “This cycle is far from over. We’ll start to see more strength again when Bitcoin breaks north of $112K.”

For now, traders are waiting for confirmation – and all eyes are on tomorrow’s CPI numbers and the Fed’s rate statement next week to decide whether Bitcoin’s long-awaited breakout is finally at hand.