BlackRock's iBit ETF Experiences Significant Outflows

BlackRock's iBit Bitcoin ETF has recorded its longest outflow streak ever, with a total loss of $2.7 billion. On Thursday alone, the ETF saw another $113 million drop. The assets under management decreased from $71 billion to $68.3 billion, a decline primarily driven by price depreciation rather than investor redemptions. This situation is reminiscent of patterns observed in 2022, as institutional basis trades are rapidly unwinding. Despite these ETF pressures, whales have been quietly accumulating 5,200 BTC this week through over-the-counter (OTC) desks, indicating that strong hands continue to buy.

Analysis of Potential Bitcoin Bear Market Mildness

Some market analysts suggest that the current Bitcoin cycle may not experience the typical 80% crash seen in previous bear markets. Unlike past peaks that were fueled by widespread retail euphoria, this cycle's top was influenced by ETF and institutional excitement. Corporate buyers, in particular, are reported to have longer-term investment horizons, often exceeding 10 years. Retail FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) largely flowed into altcoins and meme coins, leaving Bitcoin holders less exposed to significant downturns. Projections indicate that BTC could bottom out in the range of $50,000 to $74,000, representing a 40% to 60% decrease from its all-time high. A potential counter-trend rally toward $100,000 could offer an opportunity to divest weaker positions before the next major market movement.

Bitcoin Market Enters a Zone of Uncertainty

The Bitcoin market is currently navigating a rare period of uncertainty, as indicated by prediction markets. Polymarket suggests that Bitcoin has a 50/50 probability of reaching $100,000 or dropping to $80,000. This indecision highlights the underlying uncertainty beneath the confident discussions often seen on platforms like Crypto Twitter. Even prediction markets are reflecting this lack of clear direction, underscoring the rarity of such a state for BTC. Traders are on edge, anticipating a significant market move, but the direction remains unclear. Consequently, cautious positioning is advised in the current market environment.

Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch Ahead of Federal Reserve Decision

Bitcoin is approaching critical price levels at $92,000 and $95,000, which could potentially trigger a reversal. Traders are closely monitoring these zones, especially in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and press conference scheduled for Wednesday, which is expected to increase market volatility. A prudent strategy suggested for traders involves considering a short position near $92,000 with a small position size, targeting the $87,000 support level. Close attention should also be paid to market reactions to the Fed's announcements.

Weekly Chart Analysis Suggests Potential Upside for Bitcoin

Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently testing support at the lower trendline on its weekly chart, which signals potential strength within the long-term uptrend. Several key upside targets have been identified: $102,000 at the Golden Ratio, $122,000 as the 2x target, and $155,000 at the 2.618 Golden Ratio level. This multi-year channel suggests that if current support levels hold, Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory towards these higher price points, maintaining bullish momentum for investors observing the weekly trend.

Factors Driving Bitcoin's Price Increase

Bitcoin (BTC) price experienced an increase today, trading around $91,271, fueled by rising optimism due to the increased odds of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Futures indicate an approximately 85% chance of a quarter-point cut at the December 9 meeting, prompting investors to shift toward risk assets. Lower interest rates generally make cryptocurrencies more attractive compared to bonds and tend to weaken the U.S. dollar, both of which are supportive for Bitcoin. Consequently, BTC has rallied as investors position themselves ahead of potentially easier monetary policy.

Bitcoin Price at a Critical Juncture

Seven weeks after issuing a warning about the Gaussian Channel, Bitcoin is now trading deep within it. This zone has historically signified a transition between a strong bull phase and early signs of weakness. If BTC breaks out of the channel entirely, it could lead to further downside pressure. Nevertheless, a short-term relief bounce remains possible before any major directional move occurs, keeping the markets in a state of anticipation.

Bitcoin Price Tests $90,000 Amid Short-Term Pressure

Bitcoin has pulled back to the $90,000 level, which is currently acting as short-term support. If BTC maintains its position above this zone, a move towards $92,000 is anticipated in the near term. However, a breach below $90,000 would weaken the current setup and could lead to a price decline back towards $88,000. With the direction of higher timeframes still uncertain, Bitcoin remains sensitive to short-term fluctuations, necessitating caution from traders regarding market direction.

Bitcoin Price Range-Bound After Bounce

Bitcoin experienced a rebound after dipping below recent lows, but its price action remains confined within a tight range. Increased buying interest has pushed BTC higher, although significant buy and sell orders are still present on both sides of the current price. On the upside, the $93,662 level is identified as a potential pull zone if upward momentum intensifies. Conversely, if buying strength wanes, attention will shift back to the $86,478 level, where substantial interest is concentrated and could attract price action once again.